Breakout or fakeout? The next move could set the tone for July

The first trading days of July have brought plenty of movement - but very few clear answers.

Across multiple markets, the prices continue to test major technical levels, while buyers and sellers fight for control without delivering a decisive breakout. Today's Lab is all about one question: what happens next if one side finally wins? 

Dollar (DX.F)

Let's start with a quick look back at yesterday's outlook before jumping into today's update. Yesterday, we wrote the following:

“(…) based on the latest price action, a test of both the upper boundary of the consolidation and the upper boundary of the black rising channel appears to be the higher-probability scenario in the coming hours.

This is where the real battle begins.

(…) If they fail, today's move would simply become a textbook retest of the earlier breakdown below the upper boundary of the rising channel.

In that scenario, today's bullish gap (100.96-101.02) would become the first technical support for the bears to challenge.(…)”

From today's daily chart, we can see that the market played out almost exactly as the bearish scenario suggested. After failing to break above the resistance zone, the U.S. dollar reversed and declined before the end of the day. Despite a slightly stronger open in the Asian session, buyers couldn't even reach yesterday's highs, giving sellers the momentum, they needed to push price not only to our downside target but also to the lower boundary of the orange consolidation.

So, what's next?

If sellers manage to finish today's session below 100.96 and break beneath the lower edge of the consolidation, the next logical destination becomes the support zone built around the March highs (100.50-100.53) that we've discussed several times in previous reports.

This is where the battle for the next bigger move will be decided.

What does that mean in practice?

A daily close above this support zone would simply confirm the earlier breakout above the March highs. On the other hand, a daily close below it would invalidate that breakout and open the door toward the next major support area around 99.86-100.15, where the June 18 bullish gap, the psychological 100.00 level, and the lower boundary of the black rising channel all come together.

Daily Takeaway

• Watch today's close around 100.96.

• Close above support -> confirms earlier breakout above the March highs and suggests another attempt to move higher

• Close below 100.96 + breakdown from consolidation -> opens the way toward 100.50-100.53.

• Break below 100.50-100.53 ->  next downside target becomes 99.86-100.15.

Platinum (PL.F)

Let's start with a quick reminder from yesterday's outlook:

"(…) If buyers manage to finish the session back inside the orange consolidation, their chances of extending the recovery and challenging Monday's bearish engulfing pattern - and eventually the first major resistance zone - will improve significantly.(…)"

Now let's see how today's session unfolded.

From today's perspective, buyers delivered exactly what they needed to. Platinum closed back above the lower boundary of the orange consolidation, invalidating the earlier tiny breakdown and keeping the recovery scenario alive. As a result, the focus now shifts toward Monday's bearish engulfing pattern (1646), while the first major resistance zone - the bearish gap between 1651-1662 from June 24 - remains the next important hurdle.

One technical point from yesterday is still worth remembering:

“(…) A move above 1662 wouldn't simply close the bearish gap - it would also trigger a breakout from the orange consolidation that's been containing price over the past several sessions.

In our opinion, that would mark the first meaningful technical victory for the bulls.(…)”

What happens if buyers manage to break out?

A confirmed breakout would open the door toward the upper boundary of the orange declining channel. Clearing that obstacle would shift attention to the next resistance zone around 1700-1707 (June 19 bearish gap). If buyers manage to close that gap as well, the next upside target becomes 1736-1792 (June 18 bearish gap). 

Daily Takeaway

• Watch 1662. That's the key level for buyers.

• Close above 1662 -> confirms a breakout from the orange consolidation and opens the way toward the upper boundary of the orange descending channel.

• Break above the channel -> next upside target becomes 1700-1707.

• Close the 1700-1707 gap -> opens the door toward 1736-1792.
From time to time, we like to include something extra alongside our daily analysis. Today, we're sharing yesterday's Long-Term Picture - a broader perspective that helps explain why we're watching certain levels, not just what we're watching. Sometimes, understanding the bigger picture makes all the difference.

Enjoy the read!

Zooming Out

June's selloff brought platinum to one of the most important long-term support zones on the entire chart.

The monthly candle broke below the 50% Fibonacci retracement, which is a good reminder that a single technical level does not always change a market on its own. The strongest support zones are often created when multiple technical factors come together in the same area.

And speaking of this… as you see on the chart, platinum slipped to a major historical support area built around the highs from August and September 2013, the highs from 2014, and the lows from October and November 2025.

That support is further reinforced by the psychologically important 1500 level.

Taken together, this creates a powerful long-term support cluster.

Therefore, in our opinion, as long as platinum continues holding above that zone on a closing basis, the path lower remains blocked, and buyers still have a solid technical foundation for launching a broader recovery in the weeks ahead.

That said, long-term confirmation is still missing.

The first meaningful sign that buyers are regaining control would be a daily close above 1662.

Such a move wouldn't just invalidate the nearby resistance - it would also confirm a breakout above the orange daily consolidation, giving bulls additional momentum heading into the new month.

Long-term takeaway

• June brought platinum into a major long-term support zone.

• The 1500 area remains at the key level keeping the broader bullish recovery alive.

• As long as price holds above that support, buyers retain a solid technical foundation.

• Daily close above 1662 would provide the first meaningful long-term bullish confirmation.

• A breakout above 1662 would also complete a breakout from the daily consolidation, significantly improving the technical outlook.

Wait for confirmation, protect your capital, and stay one step ahead.
Have a great trading day!