Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Danish spending data up to and including 6 April show the continuation of the significant shifts in consumption that have taken place since early March, notably since the announcement of extensive lockdown measures on 11 March.
The increase in spending in early April should not be over-interpreted, as it is mainly due to some fixed expenditure (paid by card) increasing around 1 April and the data being compared with a similar weekday in 2019 rather than the same date. This distorts the data somewhat. On page 2, we include a chart displaying spending compared on a weekly level, which is less sensitive to this type of distortion.
Looking at the less volatile weekly spending figures, compared with week 14 in 2019 total spending is down by 30% excluding grocery store spending. Including grocery store spending, it is down by 10%.
In addition, we note that Easter is one week earlier in 2020 than it was in 2019. This also leads to distortions in the data. A chart on page 2 displays spending compared with the week before Easter 2019 (i.e. comparing Friday 3 April 2020 with Friday 12 April 2019 and so forth).
Compared with the Monday before Easter 2019, total spending is down 15% and 25-30% excluding grocery stores. Changes in opening hours for supermarkets and grocery stores compared with Easter 2019 might have an additional effect on spending patterns.
On the following two pages, we detail the developments in spending by type.
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