XAGUSD, H4 and DAily
Silver drifted lower, down to the last week low, at $16.30, from $16.72 highs. The sellers entering the picture as the dollar rallies, and as Treasury yields firm. The USDIndex is on four-session highs of 92.98, up from overnight lows of 92.61.
The Silver has been seen ranging since Ferbuary, with the ranges been narrow within 16.04 – 17.34. The urgency to take the contract higher has been limited since last week, as the market takes a breather from recent geopolitical angst. However there are still a lot of geopolitcal concerns at the background, since pending U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports remain a dominant them in market narratives, while uncertainty about whether the Iranian nuclear deal will survive without the US. Meanwhile, we have ahead the meeting between US and China, with US focused on avoiding a trade war with China and moving towards a peace deal with North Korea.
Silver has been seen crossing yesterday below the 20-DAY MA, while today is down by 1.3% since open price at 50 DAY MA. The price is moving close to recent Daily down fractal, after breaking the support level at 16.30, in the daily chart with weak momentum. This opens the way to 16.00 level. The RSI is currently 43, while MACD confirms the increase of negative momentum. Hence despite that asset has been in a Falling wedge, the last year, we still have not seen any sign of reversal to the upwards. Oppositely the XAGUSD is in a negative pressure so far.
The same bearish movement holds in the short-term, as price is traded outside the lower Bollinger Bands pattern, while based on technical indicators, momentum is strong enough to provide a sustained move lower. The RSI is holding slightly above the oversold territory. Next support levels are at 16.15 and at year’s low at 16.04. The latter is a strong support area and therefore is likely to see a reversal to the upwards is price does not manage to break below that area. Resistance holds at the 50-DAY MA, at 16.55.
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