Shock risks remain present for emerging market currencies

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

Summary

The possibility of an external shock to global financial markets remains ever present and is the biggest risk to upending this year's rally in emerging markets FX. The most obvious external shocks stem from a less dovish Federal Reserve and, despite a tentative trade framework reached between the U.S. and China, a deterioration in the U.S.-China relationship. In either scenario, or some other exogenous and unforeseen shock, emerging market currencies are most sensitive and can experience sharp corrections. But not all EMs are built the same. Underlying fundamentals dictate FX vulnerability to a shock, and in this note, we update our EM FX vulnerability framework to gauge which EM currencies could see the largest depreciations should an external—or even domestically driven—adverse scenario materialize.

Download the Full Report!

Author

Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

GBP/USD climbs to two-day highs past 1.3200

GBP/USD picks up extra pace and surpasses the 1.3200 threshold on Thursday. That said, Cable manages to shrug off initial weakness and regain balance on the back of the fresh selling pressure hurting the Greenback.

EUR/USD stays consolidative around 1.1370

EUR/USD regains momentum and trades with modest gains around 1.1370 ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The pair sets aside three daily declines in a row and picks up pace on the back of the lacklustre performance of the US Dollar, particularly after US data failed to reinforce Fed rate hike bets.

Gold bounces from 2026 lows, remains pressured

Gold reverses part of its recent weakness on Thursday, managing to reclaim the area just above the $4,000 mark per troy ounce. The precious metal regains traction on the back of renewed selling interest in the Greenback, although expectations of rate hikes by the Fed are likely to keep buyers on the sidelines for now.

Three reasons to avoid buying Bitcoin at $60,000

Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around $62,000 on Thursday, recovering from a brief dip below $60,000 the previous day. Although dip buyers anticipate a rebound in BTC from its psychological support zone, bearish signals from the upcoming Bitcoin options expiry, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) outflows, and large-wallet investor activity warn that selling could snowball in the coming period.

Micron prints perfect, and now the chart has to answer

Memory’s biggest name just delivered the cleanest quarter of its life, and the most interesting thing about it is that the stock isn’t sure what to do with it. Micron closed out fiscal Q3 with revenue of $41.5 billion, up 346% on the year, a fifth straight record. Gross margin came in at 84.9%, up from 39% the same quarter a year ago. Earnings landed at $25.11 against a Street sitting near $20.49.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.