Risk on, USD resuming strength

Frank Walbaum FX Strategies.Asia

lmportant news this week:

Tue, 16th tentative JP BoJ Policy Rate.
Tue, 16h, 06:30 CET AU RBA Rate Decision.
Wed, 17th, 20:00 CET AU FOMC Interest Rate Decision.
Thu, 18th, 08:00 CET UK Claimant Count Change.
Thu, 18th 09:30 CET CH SNB Rate Decision.
Thu, 18th, 13:00 CET UK BoE Interest Rate Decision.

Dow Jones leads while markets rotate beneath the surface

The US dollar is showing renewed strength, although the move remains relatively measured for now. Equity markets continue to paint a mixed picture, with the Dow Jones reaching a fresh all-time high yesterday while the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and DAX continue to lag behind. This divergence suggests that investors are rotating into different sectors rather than abandoning equities altogether. The AI investment theme remains intact, but market leadership appears to be broadening as traders look beyond the largest technology names for opportunities.
Oil prices remain under pressure and are hovering around the 80 USD area. While downside momentum is slowing, ongoing peace negotiations and improving geopolitical conditions continue to limit upside potential. In Japan, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 1% for the first time since 1995, marking a significant shift in monetary policy. Despite the historic move, the Yen remains relatively flat, with USDJPY still trading near the key 160 level. Crypto markets continue to grind higher, supported by stable risk sentiment and ongoing institutional interest.

Market talk

Market sentiment remains moderately positive, although leadership is becoming increasingly selective. The Dow's new all-time high suggests that capital continues to flow into equities, even as technology indices pause after their strong advances. The stronger US dollar is not yet creating significant pressure on risk assets, while lower oil prices help ease inflation concerns. In FX markets, traders remain focused on the implications of higher Japanese rates and whether USDJPY can remain near 160 without attracting intervention concerns. Overall, the market environment remains constructive, but rotation and sector selection are becoming increasingly important themes.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities positive, USD stronger, BTC positive, oil weaker, Silver positive, Gold positive.

Author

Frank Walbaum

FX Strategies.Asia

Frank has been working in the TV business for several years. Acquiring his skills in Germany’s biggest broadcasting station, he then chose to work and live in Asia, which was in 2007.

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