Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
The RBNZ hiked their interest rates to 0.75% as expected this week from 0.50%. This hike was entirely expected, but the RBNZ was more hawkish in their forward guidance. Growth revised up, TWI, up, employment up. Also, they now see the official cash rate at 0.94% in March 2022 (vs 0.86% previously), 2.14% in December 2022(1.62%) and 2.30% in March 2023 (previously 1.77%). Does this make sense for NZDJPY buying seeing as the Bank of Japan is expected to stay flat on rates for the foreseeable future? Seasonally, the pair does tend to rise now too.
Between November 26 & December 31 the NZDJPY has risen in value 19 times over the last 21 years. The largest gain was in 2000 with a 13.25% rise.
Key Trade Risks: Any strong risk-off trading can cause the JPY to gain.
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