NFP week: What awaits Bitcoin and Gold

This is an NFP week as markets brace for the release of a large influx of job market statistics. The data rollout begins with the JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday, continues with the ADP Employment report on Wednesday and Jobless claims on Thursday, and finishes with the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Traditionally, the NFP release is considered to be the most influential market event, and this time it arrives at a particularly sensitive moment. 

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has just delivered a 'hawkish hold', keeping the rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but three policymakers voted for a hike. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, remains sticky at 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), and markets are pricing a 68% probability of a rate increase at the September FOMC meeting. 

The upcoming NFP report will be decisive for whether the Fed tightens in September. Gold has pulled back sharply from its May highs and is under pressure from surging Treasury yields, while Bitcoin rebounded ~10% in July but remains vulnerable to macro headwinds. 

For a trader to reach a mastery level and achieve peak performance, it is important to have a clear view of what is happening in the market. In this article, Elev8 broker will highlight the key themes and factors that traders should monitor ahead of the NFP report and will conclude with the technical outlook for both gold and Bitcoin.

The context

So far, the U.S. jobs market is actually in a relatively good shape. The economists describe it as being in the 'low hire, low fire' state, which signals neither stagnation nor expansion. However, the most recent data has taken a surprising turn to the downside, complicating the Fed's policy path as it tries to navigate between maximum employment and stable inflation.

This week brings a wealth of data that will offer traders a clearer picture of the job market and help them better assess the likelihood of a September rate hike.

 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FXStreet Calendar

• JOLTS. The previous reading of 7,594k showed a labour market with still-elevated openings but trending lower. This release (for June data) will be watched closely alongside the broader employment picture. 
• ADP employment. The prior reading of +98k was notably stronger than the official NFP print of +57k for the same month. Markets will look for directional confirmation ahead of Friday's payrolls report. 
• Jobless claims. Initial claims were at a remarkably low 197k the prior week, suggesting the 'low fire' element of the labour market remains intact. 
• Nonfarm payrolls. June nonfarm payrolls came in at just +57,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, while the Q2 Employment Cost Index rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), with y-o-y wage growth of 3.2%, the slowest since Q2 2021. This week, Reuters surveys place the consensus at approximately 83,000, indicating an increase in hiring from June's weak +57k print. However, the unemployment rate is  expected to rise to 4.3%.

The July 28–29 FOMC meeting produced a rare 9–3 split, with Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland's Hammack, and Minneapolis's Kashkari all dissenting in favour of a rate hike. All three policymakers publicly called for further tightening . New Fed chair Kevin Warsh has scaled back forward guidance, meaning each economic data release, particularly payrolls, will carry greater weight. As Kar Yong Ang, a financial market expert at Elev8 broker, noted: 'With Kevin Warsh in place, markets are likely to get less official clarity on future rate decisions. Therefore, traders should expect more volatility around key economic releases. But even if NFP comes out in line with the market consensus, it will almost guarantee a rate increase in September, so I am approaching both gold and Bitcoin with a bearish bias'.

Key themes

Apart from the NFP, traders also need to consider the general macroeconomic environment when contemplating the Fed's next move. Given the current complexity of the economic backdrop, we have compiled key underlying themes to monitor alongside the jobs data.

Source: Elev8 broker

Gold

Gold (XAUUSD) closed at approximately $4,107 per ounce (oz) on 31 July, down 1.29% on the day and some 26% below its all-time high of $5,627 reached on 29 January 2026. Gold has been under pressure from rising real yields: the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.745% (the highest since January 2025) while the 30-year reached 5.281% (the highest since mid-2007). Technically, XAUUSD is in a bearish trend even as it has been trading mostly sideways for the past month or so. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market expert at Elev8 broker, notes: 'Elevated oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations, so a weak NFP is unlikely to trigger a sustained rally in XAUUSD '.

• Hot NFP (well above 90k) would cement September rate-hike expectations, likely pushing Treasury yields higher and gold lower.
• Soft NFP (well below 80k) could ease rate-hike pricing, potentially relieving pressure on gold.

Key levels to watch are 4,190–4,220 area on the upside and 4,080–4,000 on the downside. In case of a bullish reaction to the NFP report, a failure to close above 4,200 would indicate that bears still dominate the market. Likewise, in case of a bearish reaction to the NFP report, a failure to close below 4,000 may be interpreted as an 'exhaustion selloff', potentially leading to a strong recovery.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin's strong correlation with risk appetite and inverse correlation with real yields make it acutely sensitive to the rate hike path. Consequently, traders should expect BTCUSD volatility to increase around each jobs market report that comes out this week, including, of course, the NFP release.

According to Coinbase, Bitcoin closed at $62,826 per coin last Friday, down 2.93% on the day and down some 50% from its all-time high of $126,296, reached in October 2025. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market expert at Elev8 broker, notes: 'Inflation is Bitcoin's single most potent enemy. It is very hard to be bullish on bitcoin when global monetary policy is turning hawkish. A very weak if not depressing NFP is needed to invalidate the underlying bearish trend in cryptocurrencies'.  

• Hot NFP (well above 90k) would weigh on Bitcoin as rate-hike expectations firm up. Outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) could accelerate, potentially pushing BTCUSD to a new year-to-date low. 
• Soft NFP (well below 80K) could support risk appetite and crypto prices, particularly if rate hike expectations moderate. Bitcoin's July recovery would find firmer footing, and BTCUSD may finally escape its month-long range of 59,900–67,100.

Key levels to watch are 66,600–67,300 area on the upside and 60,000–57,800 on the downside. In case of a bullish reaction to the NFP report, BTCUSD may jump above 65,400, but bears will continue to dominate the market in the mid term as long as the price remains below the previous swing low, near 67,000. In case of a bearish reaction to the NFP report, BTCUSD is likely to test the 60,000 level again, but only a break below 58,400 will invalidate the current consolidation pattern, potentially opening the way towards 56,500.

Disclaimer: This article does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Elev8 does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences.

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