|

NFP sends USD down

Weak NFP sends Dollar lower as risk assets rally

The US dollar has come under broad pressure after a weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report. The softer labor market data reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates and could even move closer to easing policy if economic momentum continues to slow. The US Dollar Index is showing signs of turning lower on the weekly chart, suggesting that the recent recovery in the greenback may have come to an end.
Risk assets are responding positively. Equity markets continue to move higher as lower rate expectations improve the outlook for valuations, while Gold and Silver are posting strong gains on the back of the weaker dollar. Crypto markets are also benefiting from the improved risk sentiment, with Bitcoin and major altcoins extending their recovery. In the FX market, GBP is approaching a key technical crossroads, with upcoming price action likely to determine whether Sterling can resume its broader uptrend against the US dollar.

Market talk

The weaker NFP report has shifted market sentiment firmly toward a risk-on environment. Expectations for additional Fed tightening have faded further, placing continued pressure on the US dollar while supporting equities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies. FX traders will now focus on upcoming inflation data and comments from Fed officials to determine whether the recent dollar weakness can develop into a broader trend. If the Dollar Index continues to weaken on the weekly chart, major FX pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD could extend their recent gains.

Tendencies in the markets

  • Equities sideways, USD weak, BTC positive, oil sideways, Silver positive, Gold positive.

Author

Frank Walbaum

Frank Walbaum

FX Strategies.Asia

Frank has been working in the TV business for several years. Acquiring his skills in Germany’s biggest broadcasting station, he then chose to work and live in Asia, which was in 2007.

More from Frank Walbaum
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD: Gains remains capped below 1.3400

GBP/USD trades in positive territory, with the upside capped below 1.3400 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar extends weakness following a weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which fades Fed rate hike expectations.

EUR/USD stays firm around 1.1450  amid weaker US Dollar

EUR/USD remains on the front foot at around 1.1450 in European trading on Friday. The pair seems poised to register gains for the first time in three weeks as receding US Federal Reserve rate hike bets keep the US Dollar under pressure.

Gold stays on track to snap four-week losing streak amid fading Fed hike bets, weak USD

Gold retains its bullish bias for the third straight day and traders near a one-and-a-half-week high during the first half of the European session. The precious metal seems poised to register gains for the first time in five weeks, with bulls still awaiting a move beyond the $4,200 mark before positioning for an extension of this week's recovery from the lowest level since November 2025.

Hyperliquid gears up for a higher leg as bullish momentum resurfaces

Hyperliquid (HYPE) extends gains above $66 maintaining a long-term upward trend supported by its rising 50-day EMA around $60. Retail demand for HYPE rises in the near term, with Open Interest up around 5% over 24 hours as funding rates hold above zero, while institutional demand remains muted so far this week.

Economics week ahead

Market attention turns to next week's FOMC minutes for any signs of what could shift a divided Committee from a hold toward rate hikes. The dot plot from the last meeting made clear that policymakers are split on whether rate hikes are warranted, but with forward guidance getting tamped down under Chair Warsh, the Fed's reaction function remains uncertain in terms of what exactly would build broader support for more restrictive policy.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.