New tariffs, markets selling off

Frank Walbaum

lmportant news this week:

Dollar breakout looms as tariffs trigger risk-off sentiment

The US Dollar is gaining momentum and appears ready to break above an important resistance zone. Following the ECB meeting, the Euro has weakened further, while investors have shifted into the Dollar amid growing geopolitical and trade-related uncertainty. Fresh US tariffs announced by President Trump are weighing on global sentiment. Around 60 additional countries have reportedly been included in the latest tariff package, with import duties ranging from 10% to 12.5%. The measures are aimed at addressing concerns over forced labor, unfair trade practices, and protecting domestic manufacturing, adding another layer of uncertainty to global trade.
Markets have reacted with a clear risk-off tone. Equities are under pressure as investors reassess the impact of higher trade barriers on global growth and corporate earnings. Gold and Silver are also trading weaker despite the defensive environment, as the stronger US Dollar outweighs traditional safe-haven demand. Should the Dollar continue to rally, further downside in precious metals cannot be ruled out.

Market talk

Risk sentiment has deteriorated noticeably. The combination of a stronger US Dollar, renewed trade tensions, and fragile equity markets is creating a more defensive investment environment. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are approaching important technical support levels, and a decisive break below these areas could trigger a broader wave of selling and accelerate risk-off positioning. FX traders will closely monitor whether the Dollar Index confirms its breakout, as this could put additional pressure on EURUSD, GBPUSD, commodity currencies, and precious metals. The focus now shifts to whether markets stabilise after the initial tariff reaction or whether risk aversion continues to dominate the week.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities weak, USD strong, BTC sideways, oil strong, Silver correcting, Gold correcting.

Author

Frank Walbaum

AUD/USD climbs to four-month highs near 0.7230

AUD/USD keeps its bid tone well in place for yet another day, this time advancing to the 0.7220-0.7230 band to hit fresh four-month high on Monday. The persistent uptrend in the pair comes on the back of the resurgence of the bearish trend in the Greenback amid unabated tensions in the Middle East. Next on tap in Oz will be the Westpac’s Consumer Confidence index, housing data, and speeches by the RBA’s Hunter and Hauser

USD/JPY holds on just above 154.00

USD/JPY weakens further and remains close to the 154.00 neighbourhood, or seven-month lows, ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The pair’s severe retracement comes in response to rising bets of a rate hike by the BoJ at its next meeting coupled with repatriation speculation, while the offered stance in the Greenback adds to the overall bearish mood.

Gold bounces off lows, back above $4,400

Gold builds on Friday’s losses, although it manages to regain some composure and reclaim the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The yellow metal’s decline follows the move lower in the Greenback and steady caution ahead of key US data releases toward the end of the week.

Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC and XAU remain pressured amid sticky US-Iran tensions

Bitcoin (BTC) is correcting below $79,000 on Monday, mirroring the broader cryptocurrency market’s lethargic, bearish-shifting outlook. The Crypto King was rejected near $81,500 last Thursday, suggesting investor exhaustion. Meanwhile, Gold (XAU/USD) remains pressed against the near-term $4,400 support, as focus shifts to the upcoming United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday.

Strong US jobs, Middle East tensions and key inflation data ahead

Good morning all, hope you enjoyed your weekend. Markets are starting the week after Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which increased expectations that the Fed could raise rates at its September meeting. However, US markets are closed today for the Labor Day holiday, so liquidity should be lower and we may see slower price action.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.