Nasdaq FUTs rise after CRWV results, favorable news headline on Anthropic’s IPO

Asia market update: Cautious and directionless trading prevails in Asia as hawkish Fed speak and NVDA developments are digested; Nasdaq FUTs rise after CRWV results, favorable news headline on Anthropic’s IPO.

General trends and developments

- Anthropic’s bankers are said to be prepared to increase the IPO valuation to above $1.5T [FT]. The development comes less than 1 day after it was disclosed that the company would target a $1.4T valuation. - Bankers have indicated they expect to raise the share price above the $70-78 pricing range. This would increase the valuation target to at least $1.5T.

- Nvidia and the CN Military: Ambassadors from both the U.S. (David Perdue) and China (Xie Feng) to each respective country, reaffirmed commitments to a mutually beneficial relationship following a series of “bumpy” “ups-and-downs” following conflicts regarding Nvidia, Taiwan, and Iran. David Perdue stated that US and China militaries “beginning to talk again”, Trump offered to swap China’s oil from Iran with U.S. oil, and that the US is not getting enough cooperation from China on Iran.

- During the NY premarket-trading session, Fed Governor Waller stated that a +50bps interest rate hike in December would be warranted if October CPI inflation came in at approximately ~0.3% or higher. Waller, seemingly, signaled the hotter US inflation reading as October CPI came in at +0.4% m/m (vs. +0.3%e), and core-CPI came in at +0.3% m/m (vs. +0.2%e). Additional hawkish comments were heard from other Fed officials [including Logan, Schmid ,Paulson and even Goolsbee] following the data, thus sending Fed rate hike probabilities higher.

- Unsurprisingly, softer demand was seen at the earlier 10-year UST auction after yesterday’s disappointing bidding at the 30-year JGB auction in Japan. Recent US Oct CPI data and hawkish Fed comments appear to have been unhelpful. Japan’s yield curve has flattened on today’s session, as the rise in US Fed rate hike probabilities and USD/JPY might put rate pressure on the divided BOJ. Hence, the 5-year JGB has underperformed ahead of Thursday’s auction. Interestingly, BOJ rate hike probabilities have been volatile in recent days given the equity market volatility.

- China appears to be disincentivizing bond investment, while Japan is doing the opposite: Amid the persisting low rate environment in China, the PBOC is now consulting with banks on taxing government bond interest. Recall, China is bucking the entire global trend on bond yields, according to prior report in the WSJ. Meanwhile it was previously reported that Japan is said to consider compound-interest JGBs for retail investors.

- After USD strength, PBOC continued to guide the Chinese yuan lower setting its daily USD/CNY central parity rate at 6.7191 (vs. 6.7167 prior), the weakest level since October 22nd, 2026.

- China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) outlined several updates regarding its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI): To boost financial risk control for BRI projects, expand cooperation in emerging sectors, explore forward-looking / next-generation trade rules, and sign / upgrade investment agreements with BRI nations. (**Note: The Cumulative spending under the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) increased to a record $213.5B in 2025, with 350 deals signed last year (vs. $122.6B in 2024, with 293 deals signed last year), according to research by the Australia's Griffith University and the Green Finance & Development Center in Shanghai, citing the FT).

- The Russia/Ukraine-related peace talks in Abu Dhabi will continue on Wed. Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy characterized the first day of talks as ‘constructive and substantive’, but little has been seen in terms of tangible developments. Meanwhile, US President Trump has remained generally reticent thus far on Wed. Diplomacy remains in focus regarding Iran. Combat operations against Iran are not needed now, according to earlier comments from US Secretary of State Rubio.

- US equity FUTs +0.6% to +1.4% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using EST/EDT time-zone)

- Sun November 8th: (Sun night, JP Oct FX Reserves - USD, AU Sept Building Approvals, CN Oct CPI & PPI, PH Q3 GDP, ID Oct Consumer Confidence, JP Sept Prelim Leading Index, TW Oct Trade Balance).

- Mon November 9th: DE Sept Trade Balance, EU ECOFIN & Eurogroup Meetings, MX Oct CPI & PPI, PH Oct FX Reserves - USD, CO Oct CPI, (Mon night, AU Nov Westpac Consumer Sentiment, JP Sept Household Spending, JP Oct Current Account & Adj Current Account, JP BoJ Oct 29-30th Summary of Opinions, AU Oct NAB Business Confidence, ID Sept Retail Sales, JP 30-Year JGB Auction, MY Sept Industrial Production).

- Tue November 10th: NL Oct CPI & Sept Manufacturing Production, FR Q3 Unemployment Rate, BR BCB Nov 3-4th Copom Meeting Minutes, US Oct CPI & Core CPI, CN Oct Trade Balance & Trade Balance - USD, US WASDE Report, US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, US 10-Year Note Auction, CA BOC Oct 28th Summary of Deliberations, NZ RBNZ Financial Stability Report, (Tue night, KR Oct Unemployment Rate, AU Q3 Home Loans, MY Sept Unemployment Rate).

- Wed November 11th: NL Sept Trade Balance, DE Oct CPI, US OPEC Monthly Report, MX Sept Industrial Production, RU Sept Trade Balance, (Wed night, JP Oct PPI, AU Nov MI Inflation Expectations, JP 5-Year JGB Auction, TH Oct Consumer Confidence).

- Thu November 12th: UK Q3 Preliminary GDP & Sept Industrial Production & Trade Balance, EU ECB Economic Bulletin & Economic Forecasts, IN Oct CPI, DE Sept Current Account, BR Oct CPI, RU Central Bank Reserves - USD, US Initial Jobless Claims, US 30-Year Bond Auction, (Thu night, KR Oct Export & Import Price Index, NZ Oct Business PMI, KR Sept M2 & M3 Money Supply, TH Oct Consumer Confidence).

- Fri November 13th: FR Oct CPI, ES Oct CPI, HK Q3 GDP, PL Q3 Preliminary GDP & Oct CPI, US IEA Monthly Report, CN Oct New Yuan Loans & Total Social Financing & M2 Money Stock, EU Q3 Prelim GDP & Employment Change & Sept Trade Balance, EU Leaders Summit, US Oct PPI & Core PPI, CA Sept Capacity Utilization Rate & Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales, CO Sept Industrial Production & Retail Sales, RU Q3 Prelim GDP & Oct CPI.

- Sat November 14th: (Sat night, KR Oct Trade Balance).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon November 9th: Malaysia.

- Tue November 10th: India.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 Index opens -0.2% at 9,109.

-(AU) Australia Q3 Home Loans Value Q/Q: -15.5% v -8.0%e (Australia home loans fall by a record amount).

-(AU) Australia sells A$1.0B v A$1.0B indicated in 5.00% May 2038 bonds; Avg Yield: 5.0982% v No prior; Bid-to-cover 3.10x.

-(AU) Australian property market conditions remain very weak: The number of new home loans fell 15.0 per cent to 111,878 in the September quarter 2026, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This was the largest decline since the commencement of the data series in Sept quarter 2002. The data continued the downward trend seen through 2026 and is consistent with the declines in Aussie housing prices. In Oct, Australian national housing prices declined for the 7th straight month, according to property research firm Cotality.

China/Hong Kong

- (HK) Hang Seng Index opens -0.8% at 24,354.

- (CN) Shanghai Composite Index opens -0.2% at 3,656.

- (CN) China PBOC consults banks on taxing government bond interest - US financial press.

- (CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7191 v 6.7167 prior (weakest level since October 22nd).

- (CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY187B in 1-day Overnight Reverse Repo; Net drains CNY3B v injects CNY8B prior.

- (US) Treasury Sec Bessent: Expect talks with China on handling AI models pre-release; affirms setting up direct China channel for AI incident alerts; affirms Xi-Trump meet next week in Shenzhen, then again in Miami - US-China Event in New York.

- (CN) US Ambassador to China David Perdue: Nvidia affair shows US should stay 'diligent' on China. US relationship with China is 'bumpy' right now - US Financial Press Interview; US and China militaries "beginning to talk again"; China's licensing regime for magnets hugely escalatory; Trump offered to swap China's oil from Iran with US oil; Nothing is being held up on US arms sales to Taiwan.

- (CN) Chinese university with military ties bought Nvidia H200 chips last month despite being on the US blacklist, procurement records show.

- (US) US Commerce Department received national security warning on Nvidia CEO affair - Axios.

- (US) US Commerce Dept reportedly delays Megaspeed's inclusion on trade blacklist despite US Treasury's and the Pentagon's urging for this listing - FT.

- (CN) China State Planner (NDRC): To boost financial risk control for BRI projects. To expand BRI cooperation in emerging sectors; China smart weather warning system deployed in 8 nations.

- (IR) Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf: China plays a prominent role in helping to end the war.

- (CN) China said to call on France to play a constructive role in the China-EU relationship - press.

- (CN) China Foreign Minister meets Cuba Foreign Minister [as expected] - Xinhua [ Cuba’s Foreign Minister is visiting China between Nov 10-13th].

- Alibaba [9988.HK] Confirms T-Head spin-off files for Hong Kong listing; Alibaba retains control - filing.

- Alibaba [9988.HK]: Follow up: The co. has released the 'flagship' Qwen4-Max model (as expected), specifications were not provided - Press.

- Z.AI [2513.HK] Announces to repurchase up to HK$4.0B in H shares.

Japan

- (JP) Nikkei 225 Index opens +0.1% at 60,525.

- SoftBank Group [9984.JP]: Reports H1 Net -¥768.01B v +¥2.92T y/y, Pretax -¥438.7B v +¥3.69T y/y y/y, Rev ¥4.24T v ¥3.74T y/y; recorded $3.73B charge related to data center procurement in the US; OpenAI investment fair value at $99.6B and the investment gain is $45.0B [from Nov 10th].

- (JP) Japan PM Takaichi: No intention of pursuing fiscal policies that would lead to excessive inflation. To realize strong economy, sustainable fiscal policy - Parliament; Expects BoJ to conduct appropriate monetary policy to sustainably, stably hit its 2% price target.

- (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Kihara: Will monitor impact of US Midterm results on economy.

- (JP) Japan Foreign Ministry: Japan is planning for a declaration at the APEC Summit affirming importance of transparency for measures that could disrupt supply chains - Nikkei.

- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Results related to today's outright bond buying operations: Institutions offered to sell total bids worth ¥980.4B in 1-3 yr JGBs vs actual bids accepted by BOJ ¥330.4B; Institutions offered to sell total bids worth ¥668.7B in 5-10 yr JGBs vs actual bids accepted by BOJ ¥306.0B; Institutions offered to sell total bids worth ¥304.7B in 10-25 yr JGBs vs actual bids accepted by BOJ ¥85.0B.

- (JP) Japan Oct M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.9% prior.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi Index opens -0.6% at 5,210.

-(KR) Korea Exchange activates sidecar on Kosdaq following Kosdaq 150 FUTs rising by +6% and Kosdaq 150 Spot Index rising by +3%, programme trading halted for five-minutes.

-(KR) South Korea Nov 1-10th Exports Y/Y: 111.9% v 102.0% prior; Imports Y/Y: 45.0% v 65.5% prior; Chip exports +331.2% y/y.

-(KR) South Korea Oct Unemployment Rate: 2.5% v 2.6%e.

-(KR) South Korea Oct Total Bank Lending To Household (KRW): 1,203.9T v 1,198.9T prior.

-(KR) South Korea Finance Minster: [Confirms] To extend temporary fuel tax cuts by 2 months through end-January. Will announce fuel price cap policy on November 13th.

-(KR) Nine people seriously hurt and 48 have minor injuries after South Korea bus crash involving multiple vehicles - Official.

-(KR) South Korea FTC fines bond dealers record $1.2B over colluding in government bond auctions over more than 3 years; The fine relates to >12 domestic banks and brokerage firms.

Other Asia

- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BOT) releases minutes from October 28th interest rate meetings: No significant signs of buildup in financial stability risks, but potential side effects should be monitored; Thailand rate can be raised as pre-emptive move, if risks emerge; The baht depreciated more than regional currencies, reflecting economic structure and heavy reliance on energy imports.

- (TH) Thailand Oct Consumer Confidence: 50.9 v 52.1 prior.

- (TW) Taiwan said to have removed Alice Huang entry permit over spy claim - Press.

North America

- Anthropic bankers prepared to increase IPO valuation to above $1.5T - FT.

- (US) OCT CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Core CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e [US market close].

- (US) Treasury's $39b 10-year note reopening draws 5.020% v 5.300% prior; bid-to-cover ratio: 2.46 v 2.77 prior and 2.59 over last 8 reopenings [US market close].

- (US) Fed’s Waller: 50bps rate hike may be needed in Dec if Oct core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher; Would back a 25bps hike EVEN if CPI cools as expected [**TTN Note: Fed futures priced 0% (zero) chance of 50bps hike in Dec before Waller comments].

- (US) Treasury Sec Bessent moved to military base in wake of Iranian threats, after Iranian threats against his life - NYT.

- (US) ANT Anthropic confirms to sell 825m IPO shares at $70-78/shr; implies $57.8-64.4b capital raise; ARR $81b as of Oct 31st, up $10b from end-sept - s1 filing [US market close].

- (US) Fed's Logan (voter, hawk; non-voter in 2027): More rapid rate hikes of at least two additional 25 bps are needed this winter [US market close].

- (US) Fed's Schmid (hawk; non-voter in 2026): Seeing some concerning trends in prices underneath the whole energy story [US market close].

- (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Summary of Deliberations: Expect energy cost pass through increasing over next year; Reiterates possibility of further rate hikes [US market close].

- (CA) Canada PM Carney: Stellantis is not respecting its obligations to Canada; Armored-vehicle maker Roshel acquiring Stellantis' Brampton plant is a 'partial solution' [US market close].

- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BCB) Nov Minutes: Most recent inflation prints show an acceleration in CPI [US market close].

- Nvidia [NVDA] (US) Republican Senator Kevin Cramer from Senate Banking Committee calls on Nvidia CEO to resign - Politico [ **Note: The position of the US Democrats on Nvidia’s CEO is not clear. ].

- CoreWeave [CRWV] Reports Q3 -$1.27 v -$1.17e, Rev $3.66B v $3.55Be; Raises FY26 guidance; This is as a result of our expectation to deploy infrastructure and deliver it to customers sooner than planned. [**Reminder Oct 15th CRWV: Nvidia (~10.3% holder) CEO Huang: We don't need to backstop Coreweave because their cost of capital is decreasing and strength is improving every day].

- (US) NEC Dir Hassett: Today's CPI report was disappointing; Trickle down from energy prices is showing in the data.

- (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) crop report End 2026/2027 US Stocks (M bu) Corn: 1,758 v 1,826e Soybeans: 315 v 336e Wheat: 743 v 747e.

- (US) US regulator reportedly postpones Wall Street push to trade AI computing futures - FT.

- (US) Senate Democratic Leader Schumer: Confident he'll be elected Majority Leader of the Senate.

- (US) Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Bowman (FOMC voter): Shifting focus to inflation; Need to think about the pace and timeline for addressing inflation issue - Q&A.

Europe

-(EU) ECB's Nagel (Germany): Its 'rather obvious' that a Dec rate hike is needed; Markets expectations are important, but not a driving factor in rate decisions; We'll do what's needed to achieve 2% inflation target - media interview.

-(UK) NIESR [think tank] urges BoE to raise key interest rates to ~5.0%.

-(US) Oct NFIB Small Business Optimism: 97.8 v 98.2e [EU market close].

-(CH) SNB Dep Gov Martin: Swiss economy to grow moderately over next quarters - slide presentation [EU market close].

-(EU) ECB's Lane (Ireland, chief economist): We put a very high premium on ECB's consensus, it would be very difficult with DOTs; Would be surprised if there's no second-round effects [EU market close].

Middle East

-(IR) Iran Security Chief Rezaei: Asked US to provide a clear and explicit response to Tehran's conditions; US has not done so yet but may in the future; The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened unless US meets Iran's seven conditions - press interview [EU market close].

-(SA) Yemen Houthi's reportedly attack oil pumping stations of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline - press [EU market close].

-(SA) Yemen Houthi's reportedly attack oil pumping stations of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline - press.

-(IL) Israel PM Netanyahu: Iran is working to 'renew its nuclear threat'; Israel will face pressure to accept a nuclear-armed Iran, and retreat from our security zones [EU market close].

-(IR) Iran Foreign Minister: Claims of a meeting between Security Chief Rezaei and US VP Vance are baseless media speculation.

-(UK) UKMTO: Received report of incident involving tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

-(US) Secretary of State Rubio: Combat operations against Iran are not needed now [US market close].

Levels as of 01:20 am EDT

Nikkei 225 +1.5%; ASX 200 +0.3%; Hang Seng -0.7%; Shanghai Composite +0.6%; Kospi +2.4%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.6%; Nasdaq100 +1.4%; DAX +0.6%; FTSE100 +0.4%.

EUR 1.1170-1.1157; JPY 158.96-158.67; AUD 0.6886-0.6865; NZD 0.5614-0.5598.

Gold +0.6% at $4,058/oz; BTC -1.1% at $73,833; WTI Crude Oil +0.8% at $86.77/bbl; Copper +0.8% at $6.3208/lbs.