Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
The weaker Jolts Jobs opening data release took the Dollar Index below 101.50 and if sustained below 101 can drag it towards 100.50-99.50. Meanwhile, the Euro is trading higher within 1.10-1.11 region. USDJPY and EURJPY have fallen sharply below 145 and 160 respectively and failure to rise back can make the outlook further bearish in the near term. US ADP Employment data release is scheduled today. Aussie and Pound have risen well but a break past 0.6750 and 1.32 will be needed to maintain the ongoing bullishness. USDCNY is nearing the lower end of the 7.12/14-7.08 range. EURINR has risen past 93 and now it needs to hold well above the current levels to head towards 93.50. USDINR can continue to trade between 83.80 and 84.00.
The US Treasury and the German yields continue to fall and are keeping intact our broader bearish view. Both the Treasury and the German yields have room to fall more from here. Any intermediate bounce could be short-lived. The 10Yr GoI has dipped, breaking its near-term range on the downside. The broader down trend is likely to resume after the next support at 6.84% is also broken in the coming days.
Dow Jones and Nifty have recovered a bit and a rise towards 41800-42000 and 25500-25600 looks possible as long as the support at 40600-40500 and 25000-24900 holds. DAX has fallen below its support and failure to bounce back immediately from here might drag it further down. Shanghai has scope to bounce back while above 2780-2775.
Brent and WTI can bounce back while above the support at $72 and $66/65 respectively. Gold, Silver and Copper have to overcome their resistances overhead to become bullish or else they could fall further. Natural gas looks ranged between 2.3-2.0.
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The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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