Morning briefing: The US treasury yields have come down further

The Dollar Index is trading near 98.60 and failing to see an immediate bounce back can extend the fall to 98-97 as well. Euro & EURINR have risen past 1.1650 & 102.40 but face another resistance at 1.17 & 103 respectively. Need to see whether the resistance hold or extend the rise in both the pairs. EURJPY & USDJPY have slightly inched lower but the targets of 179 & 154 are kept alive for now. USDCNY is coming off and price action around 7.10 needs close monitoring to determine whether the pair will consolidate within the 7.10–7.15 range or extend its fall toward 7.075. The Aussie has risen past 0.655 and if sustained, can extend the gains towards 0.660-0.665 as well. The Pound has bounced a bit but a break past 1.34 will be needed to extend the rise towards 1.35 as well. USDINR is trading near 88.14 on the NDF, and unless an immediate break below 88 occurs, a sustained move above 88.30 if seen could make it vulnerable to testing 88.50.

The US Treasury yields have come down. That keeps intact our view of seeing a fall. Any rise will be capped by the near-term resistances. The German yields have dipped. Failure to rise back immediately can keep alive the chances of the fall that we have been expecting towards their support. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI is hovering near the upper end of its range. Need to see if it is breaking out of the range to move higher.

The Dow and Dax have moved up today. The Dow can rise towards 47600-48000 while the Dax can face rejection from 25000-25200 region. Nifty has risen yesterday and needs a decisive break past 26000 to head towards 27000. Nikkei can test 52000 while above 50000. Shanghai is trading near the crucial resistance at 4000, a sustained break past which is needed to rally towards 4200 eventually.

Crude prices have fallen as expected amid concerns of a global crude surplus, heading towards $65-64 (Brent) and $60-59 (WTI) respectively. Gold plunged to $3985.90 but holds above $4000, keeping chances of a rise to $4100-4200 alive. Silver broke below $47 and looks weaker towards $45-44. Copper stays firm above $5.10 with scope to rise to $5.30-5.35, while Natural Gas surged on cooler US weather forecasts but faces resistance near $4.00, with possible swings between $4.40-$3.60.

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