Morning briefing: The Euro above 1.1600 has a scope to rise towards 1.1800

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index is trading lower within the 100-98 range. Deeper support coming at 97-96 levels. The Euro above 1.16 has a scope to rise towards 1.18. EURINR needs to rise past 102.50 to bring 103-104 into picture. EURJPY & USDJPY needs to break past 172.50 and 148 to head towards 173/74 and 150 respectively in the near term. USDCNY is trading higher within its 7.14-7.20 range. The Aussie can trade within 0.64-0.66 range. The Pound has risen 1.3450 and a confirmed break past 1.35 can take it higher to 1.36/37 as well. USDINR is holding the range of 88.00-87.50 for now, the target of 87.25 is kept open for now.

The Dow has moved up on Friday and could rise towards 44500-45000 eventually, while downside can be limited to 43000 while the Dax has dipped with immediate resistance holding near 24260. A narrow trade between 24260 and 23500 can be possible in the near term. Trade tariff concerns may continue to weigh on the Indian markets, which could possibly push down Nifty towards 24000-23800 while below 24400. A bounce back above 24400 will be needed to prevent the said fall and instill some hopes of a rebound. Nikkei and Shanghai may continue to rise, targeting 43000 and 3700 in the near term.

Brent and WTI are both declining as expected, with further decline towards $64–$62 and $62–$60 respectively. Gold’s recent breakout above $3,500 appears false, and it could fall towards $3,350–$3,300 unless it regains bullish momentum. Silver may drop further if it breaks below $38, while Copper remains range-bound between $4.30–$4.50. Natural Gas has reversed earlier than anticipated and could decline towards $2.80.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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