Morning briefing: The Dollar Index fell sharply despite the fact that the Fed kept rates unchanged

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index fell sharply despite the fact that the FED kept rates unchanged. However, the probability of a rate hike in Sep-26 now stands at 50% from earlier 30%. The major currencies look strong against the Dollar, but this strength seems temporary as a bounce back in the Dollar Index from 100.70 would flip the case in the next few sessions. USDINR may open with a gap down today, with a possible test of 95.50-95.25 before pausing for a reversal.

The US Treasury Yields have risen sharply at the far-end after the US Fed meeting outcome yesterday. The bounce back move has happened from the support as expected. That keeps intact our overall bullish view. The yields can rise more. The Fed kept the rates unchanged yesterday in line with the market expectation. The German Yields are rising back from their support as expected. The broader uptrend is intact, and the yields can rise more going forward. The 10Yr GoI is rising back. A break above the immediate resistance can take it further higher before the broader downtrend resumes.

Dow has turned weaker after slipping below 52000 and can test 51000 while it remains below this level. DAX needs to sustain above 25500 to extend its rally towards 26000; otherwise, it could pull back towards 25000-24800. Nifty remains constructive above 24000 and can rise further towards 24400-24500. Nikkei has rebounded from recent lows but faces strong resistance near 65000, below which the downside towards 58000 remains intact. Shanghai continues to trade with a weak bias and can decline towards 3750 while below 3900.

Crude prices remains volatile amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brent and WTI are likely to remain within the broad $80-$100 and $75-$95 ranges respectively until clearer directional cues emerge. Gold continues to trade within the $4000-$4200 range, while Silver is expected to remain range-bound between $55 and $65. Copper remains bullish above $6.30 and can rise further towards $6.50. Natural Gas has recovered but remains vulnerable to a decline towards $2.65.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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