Morning briefing: Euro may fall back to 1.1500

The Dollar index trades higher above 99.50 after a stronger US IIP data release yesterday. While the index looks bullish above 99.50, Euro may fall back to 1.15. EURINR can test 109 before bouncing back to higher levels of 111-112 while the EURJPY could test resistance at 186. Thereafter it would be crucial to see which way the price moves. USDJPY continues its slow uptrend to 161 while USDCNY looks bearish towards 6.75 while below resistance at 6.80. Aussie and Pound can rise to 0.71-0.7150 and 1.3550 respectively from current levels. USDINR rose from 94.45 to close higher at 94.72. A sustained rise can take it back to 95+ in the near term. Watche price action today near 95, if seen.

The US Treasury Yields have risen back sharply. The support has held very well. A strong follow-through rise from here will ease the downside pressure and take them further higher. The US Fed meeting outcome tomorrow will be important to watch to see if there is any change in their interest rate path for the rest of the year. The German Yields have come down further. They have room to test their support before reversing higher again. The 10Yr GoI remains lower. Any bounce will be short-lived. There is room to fall more from here to test its support and then possibly reverse higher again.

Global equities remain supported by positive sentiment surrounding the expected US-Iran agreement. Dow continues to trade near record highs and can rise towards 52500-53000 while above 51000. DAX remains constructive above 24500 and can advance towards 25250-25500. Nifty needs to hold above 23750 to attempt another breakout above 24000. Nikkei remains bullish towards 70500-71000 while above 68000. Shanghai continues to strengthen and can rise further towards 4125-4150.

Crude prices remain under pressure as Brent and WTI continue to trade below $85. If they sustain below this level and the expected US-Iran MoU signing proceeds smoothly, a further decline towards $75-$70 becomes more likely. Gold and Silver have recovered from recent lows and can rise towards $4500-$4600 and $72-$74 respectively in the near term. Copper has seen a minor dip, but the broader outlook remains positive for a rise towards $6.70-$6.75. Natural Gas is likely to remain within the broad $3.00-$3.50 range for some time.