Morning briefing: Euro could move towards 1.1000

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Good Morning!

Most currency pairs fluctuated on Friday pre and post the US data releases for hourly Wage earnings and NFP. The Dollar Index could trade within 102-103 now while Euro could move towards 1.10 while above 1.0870. EURJPY faced rejection from 159 and could dip back towards 157 while USDJPY could come off towards 144 while below 146. USDCNY will have to sustain and rise past 7.16 to move higher towards 7.20/22. Aussie could trade above 0.66-0.6650 while Pound may continue trade between 1.26-1.28. USDRUB and EURINR look bearish. USDINR could also fall towards 83.00 before bouncing back from there.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move up. The chances are looking high for both the yields to see an extended corrective rise before their broader downtrend resumes. The 10Yr GoI is coming close to its resistance from where we expect the downtrend to resume. The 5Yr GoI is moving up within its range. The bias is negative to see a downside break of this range eventually.

Dow Jones looks vulnerable to see 37000 on the downside. DAX keeps alive the danger of breaking below 16500 and falling to 16000. Nifty has scope to rise towards its resistance while above 21500. Shanghai has scope to fall towards its support and then a bounce back is possible.

Crude prices can rise towards their upper end of the range. Gold and Silver were volatile last friday after the release of stronger US NFP data and looks likely to be range bound for a while. Copper has scope to fall towards its key immediate support before a bounce back can happen. Natural Gas can fall while below the resistance at 3.00.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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