3 bullish Gold views, 3 different reasons: A 45-year chart, record ETF flows and China's stacking

Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) just posted their first winning week in a while, and the three latest FXStreet analyses agree on one thing: the correction didn't scare off the buyers who matter. All three lean bullish, but no two make the same case — one frames it through a 45-year chart pattern, one points to record fund inflows, and one explains why China is buying more gold than it admits.

Money Metals Exchange: A 45-year base just broke

The boldest chart read argues the entire 1980-2024 period was one giant consolidation. "All the price action from 1980 through early 2024 can be viewed as a gigantic Stage 1 cup-and-handle base. Gold broke out of that pattern in 2024, beginning an unprecedented Stage 2 bull market," the analysis says. From that view, the correction from the late-January peak is small relative to the advance, and Silver - now pulled back near the top of its own similar pattern - is "at or near the point where it should begin another major advance." The near-term backdrop supports it too: the 10-year Treasury yield is "heavily overbought" near the top of its channel, and the US Dollar is "sputtering" at its own resistance, while the GDX-to-Gold ratio just broke out of a giant relative base as miners print "stellar results" with all-in sustaining costs well below spot. - Read the full report

Mike Maharrey: China is buying for a reason that has nothing to do with rates

The structural answer sits with central banks. China's Gold buying reflects "a broader global de-dollarization trend," Maharrey writes, citing CNBC's summary: "That buying spree reflects Beijing's push to cut its dependence on the dollar." The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has reported higher Gold reserves for 23 straight months - about 23 tonnes added in September, 80 tonnes year-to-date - and, per researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs, may secretly hold more than 5,000 tonnes in Beijing, over twice the admitted figure, while its US Treasury holdings have collapsed to the lowest level since 2008. The driver is counterparty risk: "Western governments froze Russia's central bank assets after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, underscoring how foreign-held reserves can be restricted at times of geopolitical friction, while gold in a country's own vaults remains insulated." And because central banks are "far less price sensitive than retail investors," ING's Ewa Manthey calls Chinese buying "an important source of structural support for gold prices." - Read the full report

Money Metals Exchange: Record flows under the dip

The flows data backs the structural camp. "The more revealing development is what happened while prices were falling: investors poured billions into gold-backed funds, and China stepped up its purchases of physical gold," the analysis notes. World Gold Council figures show global Gold ETFs attracted about $10 billion in September even as prices declined, third-quarter inflows hit a record $31 billion, and holdings rose to an all-time high of 4,256 tonnes. "Investors were adding exposure during a correction, suggesting that many still see reasons to own gold beyond the next Fed meeting," it says. The caution flag is the Fed: minutes from September's meeting showed most policymakers expected another rate increase before year-end, and the 10-year yield still sat near 5.24% - making Wednesday's consumer inflation report the main test for the recovery. - Read the full report

The takeaway

This is a consensus, not a split: all three views are bullish, but through stacked mechanisms - a 45-year technical breakout, record ETF and central bank accumulation, and de-dollarization demand. Watch Wednesday's US consumer inflation report for the near-term test: a softer print would ease Fed tightening expectations and let the recovery extend, while a hotter one revives the pressure that drove the selloff.

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)