Morning briefing: Euro could fall to 1.0950 - 1.0900

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Good Morning! Happy New Year 2024!

Dollar Index looks stable below 102 but could see a short rise to 102-102.50 while Euro could fall to 1.0950-1.09. EURJPY and USDJPY look bearish towards 155/154 and 140-138 respectively from where bounce can be expected. USDCNY can trade within 7.0875-7.15 for the near term. Aussie and Pound also look bearish for a dip towards 0.6750 and 1.26. USDRUB can attempt to rise to 92 while above 88. USDINR can trade within 83.10-83.30 for the next few sessions. EURINR has fallen sharply and could head towards 91.50-91.00 before reversing from there in the medium term.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move up. The corrective rise is happening in both of them in line with our expectation. There is room to rise further in the coming days before the overall downtrend resumes. The 10Yr and the 5Yr GoI are consolidating within their downtrend. The bias remains negative to resume the fall eventually in the coming days.

Dow Jones and Nifty have key resistances ahead which can be tested in the near term before a corrective fall can happen. DAX remains range bound. Shanghai has scope to test its immediate resistance before a pause can be seen.

Crude prices have rebounded but needs to overcome their resistances to ease the downside pressure. Gold, Silver and Copper have scope to test their key immediate support before a bounce back can happen. Natural Gas has broken its sideways range on the upside and looks bullish to move up further from here.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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