Morning briefing: Euro can test the support near 1.1700

Trump's ‘'One, Big, Beautiful Bill" of spending and tax cuts got narrowly passed that is estimated to add $3.4 trillion to the nation's $36.2 trillion debt. The Dollar Index rose well yesterday. The range of 96-98/99 can hold for some time. The Euro can test the support near 1.17 if it falls further. The targets of 1.19-1.20 are kept alive for now. EURINR needs to see a decisive rise past 101 to turn bullish in the near term. EURJPY has risen past 170 and if sustained, can extend the ongoing rise to 175 as well. USDJPY and USDCNY can broadly trade within the 142-146 and 7.14-7.18 region respectively in the near term. The Aussie and Pound continue to trade within 0.645-0.660 and 1.35-1.38 range. USDINR yesterday observed the low of 85.1925 before closing higher. Still, there is enough room to extend the fall to 85.00-84.75 in the coming sessions before halting.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply after the jobs data release on Thursday. However, the yields have key resistances near current levels. While that holds, they can fall back again and keep the broader downtrend intact. The US NFP increased by 147K as against the market expectation of 120K. The Unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%. The German yields have come down again. Failure to rise back again can negate the chances of the rise mentioned yesterday. It will also keep the chances alive of seeing more fall. The 10Yr GoI remains intact within its range and is inching down within it.

Global indices remain broadly positive with mild corrections in some. The Dow may test 45,000–45,200 before a dip to 44,700–44,500 and then head towards 46,000. DAX stays bullish towards 24,500–25,000 with support at 23,700–23,500. Nifty has support near current levels; while that holds, a bounce to 25,700–26,000 is possible, else a dip to 25,250–25,200 before a reversal. Nikkei could rise towards 41,000 while above 39,500. Shanghai remains range-bound between 3,465–3,415.

Brent and WTI have seen minor dips but remain bullish, and can rise towards $70–$72 and $68–$70 respectively. Gold remains range-bound between $3,300–$3,400 unless it breaks above $3,400. Silver has risen above $37 and could head towards $37.5–$38. Copper may dip to $5.10 before resuming its uptrend towards $5.30–$5.40. Natural Gas is testing support near $3.40—holding above could lead to a bounce towards $3.50–$3.60, while a break below may drag it down to $3.20–$3.00.

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