Morning briefing: EUR/USD likely to head towards 1.1700

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar index has declined below 99 and looks bearish for the near term with the Euro likely to head towards 1.17. USDJPY and EURJPY have plunged yet again and looks strongly bearish towards 150-148 and 175/170. EURINR could have limited upside to 110-110.50. Aussie and Pound lookk bullish. USDCNY has dipped as expected and can test 6.70. USDINR can continue to trade within 94.80-94.25 range for a while with some possibility of testing 94.

The US Treasury Yields remain stable in the early Asian session. The US markets were closed yesterday. The outlook remains bullish. The Treasury Yields can rise more from here. The German Yields have risen well. A follow-through rise from here can take them further higher in the coming days. View is bullish. The 10Yr GoI remains stable. As mentioned yesterday, a narrow range is possible for some time before we get more rise eventually.

Dow remains range-bound between 52500-54000, while DAX can rise towards 26500. Nifty has slipped below 23800, keeping the downside risk open towards 23600-23500. Nikkei remains positive and can rise towards 67000-68000. Shanghai is likely to continue trading within the 3850-4000 range while below 4000.

Brent and WTI continue to move higher in line with our expectations and can rise towards $100 and $95 respectively. Gold remains positive above $4300 and can rise towards $4600. Silver needs a sustained break above $70 for a move towards $75-$80. Copper is testing the key $6.80 resistance, with a break above it opening the way towards $6.90-$7.00, while a failure could lead to a dip towards $6.70-$6.60. Natural Gas needs to sustain above $3.00 for a rise towards $3.25-$3.50.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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