Morning briefing: EUR/USD could decline towards 1.1500 and lower

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar index has pulled itself up despite the softer CPI release yesterday, indicating near-term bullishness on a break above 100. That said, the Euro, EURJPY, Aussie, and Pound could decline towards 1.15 and lower, 183/182, 0.70/69 and 1.33, respectively, in the near term. USDJPY can aim for 160-161 while above 159. EURINR is holding below resistance near 110.30 and can soon fall towards 109-108. Aussie and Pound can test 0.71 and 1.3550 before being rejected. USDCNY can target 6.70 in the medium term. USDINR could trade below resistance at 95.50 for now. A range trade between 95.50 and 95.10 looks likely.

The US Treasury Yields remain lower. They have room to test their support and then resume their broader uptrend eventually. Data release yesterday showed that the US Headline CPI has come down sharply to 3.3% (YoY) in July from 3.46% in June. The German Yields have bounced back from their lows. Supports are there to limit their downside. Outlook remains bullish, and the yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI has come back into the narrow range. We retain our bearish view to see a downside break of this range.

Global equities remain mixed. Dow is drifting lower towards 53000 while continuing to trade within the broader 53000-55000 range. DAX remains constructive and can rise towards 27000-27500 despite struggling to sustain above 26500. Nifty has shown a good recovery from recent lows and can move higher towards 24500 and above while support near 24350-24300 holds. Nikkei has turned strongly bullish after breaking above 68000 and can extend its rally towards 70000. Shanghai remains near key resistance around 3970, with a break higher opening the way towards 4050, while failure to break above could lead to a pullback towards 3900-3850.

Commodities remain mixed, with crude prices consolidating within broad ranges of $80-$95 for Brent and $75-$90 for WTI. Gold remains bullish and can break above $4500 to rise towards $4600-$4650, while Silver can extend its gains towards $70-$75. Copper remains weak and can decline further towards $6.50-$6.45. Natural Gas continues to strengthen and can rise towards $2.80-$3.00 while holding above the key support near $2.60.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

GBP/USD trades below 1.3500 on firmer USD, ahead of UK GDP

The GBP/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the second consecutive day and trades below the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session amid modest US Dollar strength. The downside potential, however, seems limited as traders might opt to wait for the UK macro data dump, including the Q2 GDP report, before placing directional bets.

EUR/USD advances as US Dollar weakens amid cooling Inflation

EUR/USD halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 1.1530 during the Asian hours. The currency pair gains ground as the US Dollar faces challenges following the release of July's Consumer Price Index report. Inflation in the US moderated across a broad range of goods and services, which significantly cooled expectations for an aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

Gold retreats from June 5 high amid oil-driven Fed rate-hike bets

Gold retreats after touching a fresh high since June 5, around the $4,450 area, during the Asian session, and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily range. The immediate market reaction to signs of moderating US inflation seems to have faded amid expectations that higher energy prices will rekindle inflationary pressures.

Ripple and Stellar outlook: Stay under pressure as cautious sentiment builds

Ripple and Stellar remain under pressure, with both altcoins correcting slightly so far this week. XRP nears the key $1.00 support zone on Thursday, while XLM trades below critical technical levels. Mixed derivatives and on-chain metrics suggest cautious sentiment, leaving both tokens vulnerable to further downside while offering hope for a potential recovery.

UK GDP expected to show moderate Q2 growth

The United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will release the preliminary estimate of the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product on Thursday. Market analysts anticipate a 0.4% growth in the three months to June, after a modest 0.6% advance in the first quarter of 2026. Annual progress is expected at 1.1%, up from the 0.9% posted in March.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.