Morning briefing: EUR/USD can attempt to bounce back towards 1.1600-1.1700

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index is stuck within 99-100 region. EURUSD can attempt to bounce back towards 1.16-1.17 if the support near 1.1550 holds. EURINR can trade within 103.50-102.00 region for some time. EURJPY can test 182 before getting peaked out. USDJPY can move towards 158 or even 160 on a sustained move above 156. USDCNY is gradually rising within 7.10-7.14 range. Aussie is coming off within its 0.6580-0.6480/60 range and can test the support near 0.6460 if the fall extends further. Pound stays vulnerable to fall towards 1.30 while below 1.32. USDINR continues to trade within 88.50-88.80 for now.

The US Treasury yields are turning down from the upper end of their range. So, for now, the sideways range remains intact and a fall within it is possible. A bullish breakout is needed to go up. The German Yields are holding above their resistance. A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to confirm the breakout and move higher. The 10Yr GoI continues to move up and can rise further in the coming days.

Global indices are mixed, with the Dow headed towards 46500 before attempting a rebound and the DAX headed towards 23500-23000 before pausing for a rebound. Nifty is rising well and can test 26200 before facing rejection. Nikkei is supported near 49000 but if breaks, can test lower support at 48000. A bounce from 49000 or 48000 can eventually take it higher in the long run. Shanghai can test 3950 before rising towards 4050 or higher. Break below 3950, if seen, can take it down to 3900.

Crude prices remains range-bound with Brent holding inside $66-62 and WTI inside $62-58 before both turn lower in the coming weeks. Gold is slipping towards the key $4000 support that decides whether it bounces or extends its fall toward $3800-3600. Silver is steady above $50 but stays vulnerable if that level breaks. Copper is still moving inside its broader $5.20-4.90 band as long as it holds above $4.90. Natural gas continues to weaken with room to slide towards $4.30.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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