Morning briefing: EUR/USD can attempt to bounce back towards 1.1600-1.1700

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index is stuck within 99-100 region. EURUSD can attempt to bounce back towards 1.16-1.17 if the support near 1.1550 holds. EURINR can trade within 103.50-102.00 region for some time. EURJPY can test 182 before getting peaked out. USDJPY can move towards 158 or even 160 on a sustained move above 156. USDCNY is gradually rising within 7.10-7.14 range. Aussie is coming off within its 0.6580-0.6480/60 range and can test the support near 0.6460 if the fall extends further. Pound stays vulnerable to fall towards 1.30 while below 1.32. USDINR continues to trade within 88.50-88.80 for now.

The US Treasury yields are turning down from the upper end of their range. So, for now, the sideways range remains intact and a fall within it is possible. A bullish breakout is needed to go up. The German Yields are holding above their resistance. A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to confirm the breakout and move higher. The 10Yr GoI continues to move up and can rise further in the coming days.

Global indices are mixed, with the Dow headed towards 46500 before attempting a rebound and the DAX headed towards 23500-23000 before pausing for a rebound. Nifty is rising well and can test 26200 before facing rejection. Nikkei is supported near 49000 but if breaks, can test lower support at 48000. A bounce from 49000 or 48000 can eventually take it higher in the long run. Shanghai can test 3950 before rising towards 4050 or higher. Break below 3950, if seen, can take it down to 3900.

Crude prices remains range-bound with Brent holding inside $66-62 and WTI inside $62-58 before both turn lower in the coming weeks. Gold is slipping towards the key $4000 support that decides whether it bounces or extends its fall toward $3800-3600. Silver is steady above $50 but stays vulnerable if that level breaks. Copper is still moving inside its broader $5.20-4.90 band as long as it holds above $4.90. Natural gas continues to weaken with room to slide towards $4.30.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

EUR/USD rises to 1.1800 neighborhood amid renewed USD selling and trade uncertainties

The EUR/USD pair regains positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday and jumps to the 1.1800 neighborhood in the last hour, reversing the previous day's modest losses. The intraday move up is sponsored by the emergence of fresh US Dollar, which continues to be weighed down by persistent trade-related uncertainties.

GBP/USD remains stronger above 1.3500 following Trump’s State of the Union

GBP/USD remains in the positive territory for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.3510 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar remains subdued following US President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union address of his second administration before a joint session of Congress.

Gold re-attempts $5,200 amid tariffs and geopolitical woes

Gold buyers are back in the game early Wednesday after seeing a correction from monthly highs on Tuesday. The US Dollar slips after Trump’s SOTU fails to impress and as AI-driven worries ease. Dovish Fed bets also weigh. Gold looks north so long as the key 61.8% Fibo resistance at $5,142 holds on the daily chart.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple post cautious recovery amid downside risks

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are posting a cautious recovery on Wednesday following a market correction earlier this week. BTC is approaching a key breakdown level, while ETH and XRP are rebounding from crucial support levels.

The Citrini report: How a debatable AI narrative can shake Wall Street

That AI-related headline alone was enough to rattle investors.US stocks slid sharply on Monday after a widely circulated Citrini Research memo outlined a hypothetical “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis”, warning that rapid AI adoption could push US unemployment into double digits as early as by mid-2028.

XRP pressured by weak ETF flows and declining retail interest

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower, trading above its intraday low of $1.32 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The decline from its weekly opening of $1.39 reflects heightened volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market, accentuated by tariff-triggered uncertainty.