Morning briefing: Euro could test 1.06 while below 1.08

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Dollar Index has dipped from 105.50 but has scope to test 106 while above 104. Similarly, Euro could test 1.06 while below 1.08. Aussie and Pound looks bearish towards 0.64 and 1.2350. USDJPY can rise to 148-149 while EURJPY can bounce back from 156.60. USDCNY can test 7.30/35 while above 7.25. USDRUB can trade within 94-98 range. EURINR trades above 88.30 and could remain within 88-89.50 for the near term. USDINR can face rejection from 83.20/25 and fall back to 83.00-82.90

The US Treasury yields have risen further and are looking bullish to see more rise from here. The US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday is a very important event to watch this week. The outcome of this meeting can set the trend for the market going forward. The German yields have surged. Outlook is bullish and there is more room to rise. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen sharply. The supports have held well and that keeps the broader uptrend intact.

Dow Jones has fallen back sharply last Friday but is likely to get support at 34400 and 34200. DAX is moving up towards the upper end of its 15500-16100 range. Nifty remains bullish for a test 20300-20400 in the near term. Shanghai is bearish while below the resistance at 3150.

Brent and WTI remains bullish for a test of key resistance at $95 and $92 respectively. Gold and Silver outlook is bullish while above the support at 1920 (Gold) and 22.50 (Silver), respectively. Copper is to be range bound within 3.86-3.75 for a while. Natural gas has scope to test the support at 2.51-2.50 before a bounce back can happen.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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