Morning briefing: Euro can fall towards 1.0850-1.0810 in the near term

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Good Morning!

Dollar Index looks bullish for a rise to 104 while above 103. Euro can fall towards 1.0850-1.0810 in the near term. EURJPY and USDJPY trade within a very narrow range and needs a breakout on either side for further directional clarity. USDCNY can test 7.22/20 before again rising back towards 7.25 or higher in the coming sessions. Pound can test 1.2650-1.26 while Aussie looks bullish towards 0.67-0.6725. USDRUB has risen above 90 as expected and can now test 92. USDINR closed above 82 yesterday and can trade higher while above important support at 81.75. EURINR can fall to 89-88.80/60 in the near term.

The US markets were closed yesterday. The Treasury yields are oscillating in a sideways range. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity on the next move. The German yields have risen back and can move up towards the upper end of their range. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are poised at a crucial level. A strong and sustained rise from here is needed to move further up. Else they can fall back. It is a wait and watch situation now.

DAX has dipped further but is likely to get support at 15900. Shanghai has declined but downside seems limited to 3200. Nikkei has bounced back as the support mentioned at 33000 is holding well. Nifty remain bullish to target new highs.

Brent and WTI may continue to be range bound for the near term. Gold and Silver needs to break above their resistance level to avoid the danger of falling. Copper has dipped contrary to our view and failure to break above 3.8 can drag it down further.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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