Morning briefing: Dollar Index may trade within 104.50-103.50

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Good Morning!

Dollar Index may trade within 104.50-103.50 while Euro can be seen within 1.0640-1.0780 for sometime. EURJPY and USDJPY have moved up slightly but look bearish while below immediate resistances near 151 and 141 respectively. USDCNY looks bullish towards 7.15/20 while Pound and Aussie may trade within 1.2350-1.2550 and 0.67-0.66 respectively. Aussie has crucial near term resistance near 0.67. USDRUB has been slowly moving up which if continues can take it to 82+ levels soon. EURINR could hold above 88 for a few more sessions while USDINR can remain volatile within 82.30-82.75/80. RBI policy meeting is due today where markets expect the central bank to hold the repo rate at 6.5%.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply contrary to our expectation. Key resistances are ahead which have to be broken to become convincingly bullish. It is a wait and watch. Similarly, the German yields are also coming closer to their important resistance. It will have to be seen if they can breach it or not. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain lower and stable. The broader bearish view is intact. Volatility is expected today after the outcome of the RBI’s monetary policy meeting.

Dow Jones has moved up further and may remain bullish as long as it holds above the support at 33300. DAX needs to sustain above 15800 to keep alive the chances of seeing a rise on the upside. Nifty is on its ways to target crucial resistance. Nikkei has scope to come down towards its immediate supports. Shanghai is coming off towards the lower end of the range.

Crude prices remains mixed. Gold has declined towards its immediate support. Need to watch if it manage to rebound or breaks below it. Silver is likely to be range bound blow 24.50 for a few sessions. Copper has scope to break above 3.80 if the near term support holds well.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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