Morning Briefing: EUR/USD can be ranged within 1.0550-1.07

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Currencies look stable and are near immediate resistance and support levels. Dollar Index and Euro can be ranged within 105-107 and 1.0550-1.07 while EURJPY can test immediate resistance at 146. Pound and Aussie are bullish while above supports at 1.20 and 0.6650. Dollar Yen has moved up and can test resistance at 138 which if holds can drag it down towards 135/132. USDCNY is trying to move up but is bearish while below 7. USDRUB has risen well and may test resistance at 70 before coming off sharply. USDINR is stuck within 82.40-83.00 with some chances of breaking higher in the medium term. EURINR is bullish while above 86.50

The US Treasury yields have risen further across tenors. Key resistances are ahead which can be tested now. The price action thereafter will be very crucial to see if the yields are breaking above their hurdle or not. The German yields have moved up further at the far-end. The outlook remains bullish. As mentioned yesterday, the recent rally indicates that a fresh leg of upmove has begun. The 10Yr has come up to the upper end of the range and needs to see if it can break out and rise further. The 5Yr has room to move up within its range.

Dow continues to fall and looks bearish to come down further in the near term. DAX has recovered a bit but needs to break above the 14000-14200 resistance zone to avoid the danger of falling further. Nikkei has bounced back a bit but needs to sustain above the support at 27000 to negate a further fall in the near term. Shanghai is likely to test key support at 3075 before any possible bounce back can be seen. Nifty has rebounded sharply and but needs a decisive break above the key resistance at 18600 to see an extended rise in the coming sessions.

Brent and WTI have moved up from yesterday's close but needs a strong break above the resistance at $82.50 (Brent) and $77.5 (WTI) respectively to rise further in the coming sessions. Gold may remains sideways for a while. Silver has declined but the support at 22.70 is likely to limit the downside. Copper may trade within 3.70-3.93 for a few more sessions.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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