Morning breifing: The Euro needs to break past 1.1300 to rise further

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index has support near 100.50-100.00 region, a confirmed break below 100 can extend the fall to 99-96. Immediate upside is capped at 101.50-102.00. The Euro needs to break past 1.13 to rise further, else it can be vulnerable to fall back. EURINR is stuck within 96-95 region for now. EURJPY and USDJPY can soon test 162.5 and 145/44 respectively. Thereafter, whether the fall extends further or not will have to be seen. AUDUSD can trade within the range of 0.650-0.635 for a while. The USDCNY on a confirmed break below 7.20 can test 7.15 on the downside. The upside could be capped at 7.23/24. Pound has resistance just above current levels and while below it, the fall can get extended to 1.31. The USDINR tested 85.73 before cooling down. The fall can get extended to 85.25-85.00 levels in the near term.

The US Treasury and the German yields have declined sharply. The resistance on the Treasury yields has held very well. They can fall more in the coming days. The German yields on the other hand have support near current levels. They have to sustain above this support to keep the bullish view alive. We will have to wait and watch.

Dow Jones holds well above support at 41800 and can continue to rise towards 43000. Dax is also bullish towards 24000-24500. Selling pressure is seen across the Asia-Pac equity indices (except Indian equities) as Nikkei and Shanghai continue to decline. The indices could get some support near 37500 and 3350 respectively. Nifty has risen well, entering above the 25000 level. While above 25000, an eventual rise to 25500-26000 could be seen in the coming weeks.

Brent and WTI have weakened, slipping below key levels and are likely to trade in lower ranges for now. Gold bounced back after testing support at $3,123.30 and could rise towards $3,300–$3,350 if the support holds. Silver remains range-bound between $34–$32. Copper faces resistance and may decline towards $4.40–$4.20. Natural gas continues to fall and could test support near $3.10–$3.00 in the near term.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.