Money money money

S2N spotlight

The latest M2—US Money Supply reached a record $21.9 trillion in May. The growth year-on-year was 4.5%, sitting well above targeted inflation of 2%.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said they are looking to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in a few weeks. What does that mean if Powell’s term still has another year to run?

President Trump has stated he wants interest rates at 1%. Against this backdrop, how can one expect to see inflation tamed anytime soon? Especially if there is follow-through on the tariffs and you get a dovish Fed Chair.

If you used the 200-day moving average of the year-on-year M2 growth rate as a trading signal, you would outperform the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis while significantly underperforming on a total return. In today’s world of headlines (noise), I am sure that would not appeal to most investors. The current signal remains bullish.

I am not going into the winners and losers of excessive money growth, other than the obvious loser. The once mighty dollar has lost 41% over the last 45 years. I have been reluctant to make a strong call on dollar weakness, favouring bullish gold. I will do some further analysis on the dollar, but I think we are on the cusp of a significant move down in the dollar.

S2N observations

Just sharing a bunch of price journeys for 2025. You can see all of these and much more on the research portal.

 A lot of food-related futures are well off their early highs in the year. This no doubt blurs the vision of future inflation.

Apple and Tesla labels are overlapping in the chart below.

S2N screener alert

The EURUSD is on an 8-day up streak, the 10th longest in its history.

S2N performance review

S2N chart gallery

S2N news today

The calendar I have been accessing over the last 2 years has suddenly been hidden behind a paywall. I created this version on the fly while writing this letter, and I can see it is wrong, as those events were on Friday. I will address it ASAP.