Miran enters the Fed’s dovish orchestra as Trump sharpens the tariff baton

There’s a new guest violinist in the Fed’s monetary orchestra — Stephen Miran — and he’s expected to play to Trump’s dovish score. Nominated to fill a vacant FOMC seat through January, Miran is unlikely to change the melody on his own, but his presence nudges the ensemble closer to a looser rhythm. He’s joined by familiar voices like Waller and Bowman in what’s starting to sound more like a soft-landing serenade than a hawkish march.

While whispers of a 50bp push make the rounds, don’t overplay the sheet music — Miran’s seat is temporary, and the real story lies in the longer arc of Fed leadership. Waller now has the inside track to Powell’s chair, and though no dove, he’s no Kevin Warsh either. If Miran is a tremor, Waller would be the tectonic plate shift. But that risk is months out. For now, the market shrugged.

Elsewhere, the data tape isn’t offering much to chew on. US jobless claims ticked back up to 226k, reversing a recent trend lower, while continuing claims surged to 1.974 million — their highest level since 2021. The message? The labor market’s cushion is thinning. Fewer folks are jumping back into jobs quickly, and that usually doesn’t happen unless the economy is slipping through its gears.

The DXY seems content to meander near 98.0, sandwiched between a lull in data and next week’s CPI cliff. But the bias? Still tilted lower. The market’s not sprinting, but it’s definitely leaning.

Back in the True North, the Canadian labour market may be skating on thinner ice than it looks. Today’s jobs data is expected to show unemployment pushing back toward 7.0%. That’s a psychological marker — and if hit, could stir chatter around a second Bank of Canada cut this year. The loonie isn’t just vulnerable to local data, either — it’s caught in the crosswinds of Trump’s tariff crossfire. It’s hard to be bullish on the Loonie here.

EUR/USD is drifting in the 1.1600–1.1700 channel, unsure whether to break higher or snap back. The market flirted with optimism after news broke of a possible Trump-Putin meeting, but there’s little meat on that bone. Traders are starting to wise up — without a concrete roadmap to a ceasefire, the euro’s bounce may have been premature.

Watch energy markets, and EUR/JPY for the real read on sentiment here. If a meaningful truce starts taking shape, the euro’s upside is real. If not, back to defensive posturing we go.

Asia FX: Floating despite the chip tariff undertow

Asia FX is still treading water — helped by the Fed’s dovish tone — even as the undercurrent of chip tariffs begins to swirl.

Trump’s latest saber-rattle: a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports. But the devil’s in the details. Firms with US manufacturing plans — like TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix — appear poised to dodge the hit. This isn’t economic warfare, it’s a recruitment drive disguised as a threat. The aim? Lure fabs back to American soil without crashing the tech supply chain.

Still, markets are sniffing around for weak links. Malaysia’s the most exposed — semis make up a heavy chunk of GDP, and the US is a key customer. Vietnam and Thailand are close behind. But with carve-outs likely, the final tariff sticker may come in much lower — and the real risk may be sentiment, not substance.

The dollar may be rangebound for now, but beneath the calm, a dovish Fed rotation, softening labour data, and tariff gamesmanship are reshuffling the deck. Miran’s arrival might be a footnote, but if Waller takes the Fed throne, markets may be dancing to a very different tune by year-end. Keep your stops tight, your CPI radar on, and don’t trust the calm — summer markets often lull before they lurch.

Gold blasts through the ceiling as tariff shock hits the tape

The bullion market just got hit with a bolt of monetary lightning.

Gold futures vaulted to a fresh all-time high of $3,534.10 after news broke that the U.S. will impose tariffs on imported 1-kilogram gold bars — a move that sent shockwaves through a market already on edge. Spot prices aren’t far behind, holding steady near $3,394 and eyeing their second straight weekly gain. This isn’t just a knee-jerk spike — it’s a structural tremor.

Tariffs on Swiss-refined gold weren’t in anyone’s playbook. Gold, traditionally viewed as apolitical and tariff-proof, just got pulled into the battleground. That’s a big line to cross. Traders are scrambling to reprice not just flows, but jurisdictional risk.

Switzerland, the world’s refinery powerhouse, now finds itself staring at a customs wall. It’s not just about the physical premium or supply chains — this has lit a fire under haven demand. Suddenly, bullion isn’t just a hedge against inflation or a play on rate cuts — it’s now a protest vote against an unraveling trade regime.

A new bullion regime: Tariffs, treasuries, and the tide turning

The backdrop couldn’t be more combustible. Rate-cut bets are back in vogue, with soft jobless claims and fading hiring momentum fueling the fire. The Fed isn’t exactly reaching for the panic button — but it’s not throwing cold water on easing hopes either. Gold is sniffing that out.

And now with tariffs in the mix, we’re entering unfamiliar territory: a scenario where both geopolitical premiums and monetary dovishness collide in gold’s favor. That’s a rare alignment.

Bond yields are under pressure, the dollar is losing its grip, and the old playbook — sell gold in a strong-dollar environment — is starting to tear at the seams. This is no longer about CPI prints or NFP beats. This is about policy volatility and sovereign unpredictability. And in that world, bullion shines brightest.

What’s next?

From a technical lens, there’s little in the way until we test $3,600. Momentum is back. Every trader that faded the last rally now finds themselves short in a tape that’s growing increasingly illiquid and one headline away from another vertical candle.

The spot curve is chasing futures higher — but keep a close eye on premiums, arbitrage flows, and refinery margins. If this tariff framework stays, it may create long-lasting distortions that pull physical gold further away from spot benchmarks.

In short: gold is no longer just a macro barometer. It’s turning into a geopolitical asset — and the market’s beginning to price that in.