Markets up, yay

Nick Mastrandrea Market Tea Leaves

USD: Sep '26 is Up at 98.540.

Energies: Sep '26 Crude is Up at 86.75

Financials: The Sep '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 12 ticks and trading at 109.19.

Indices: The Jun '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 19 ticks Lower and trading at 7725.75.

Gold: The Aug'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4538.70

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, but the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. Asia traded Lower with the exception of the Hang Seng exchange. All of Europe is trading Lower except the Milan exchange.

Possible challenges to traders

Philly Fed MFG Index is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
Unemployment Claims is out at 8:3 EST. Major.
CB Leading Index m/m is out at 10 AM EST. Major.
Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. Major.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST with no real news pending. The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $6.25. Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Sep '26. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Sep 26 - 8/19/26

Dow - Sep 2026- 8/19/26

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Mixed or Neutral bias, but the markets had other ideas. The Dow closed Higher by 128 points and the other indices closed Higher as well. Today we will maintain a Neutral or Mixed bias.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Hormuz is closed with no scheduled talks. Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

Nick Mastrandrea over 20 years experience in trading and formerly held a NASD Series 7. He currently holds a NJ Life, Health and Variable Authority. Nick is a published writer and his work has appeared in Futures Magazine, TraderPlanet and others.

GBP/USD approaches May highs near 1.3650 on renewed USD selling

GBP/USD approaches the May high, while trading near 1.3650 in the European session on Thursday. The US Dollar slips again even as markets assess whether the US Treasury buyback will be a game-changer. Attention now remains on US data and Middle East headlines for further trading impetus.

EUR/USD hits fresh three-month highs above 1.1700

EUR/USD is at its highest level in three months, above 1.1700, in European trading on Thursday. The pair regains traction as the US Dollar resumes its downside, led by the US Treasury's bond buyback plan.. US Jobless Claims data are next in focus amid lingering Iran risks.

Gold stays in red below $4,500 despite resurgent USD supply

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses and remains below the $4,500 mark in the European session on Thursday. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the US Dollar loses ground again, resuming the previous day’s slump to a three-month low.

Bitcoin extends gains above $71,000 as liquidity conditions improve

Bitcoin extends its gains, inching toward $72,000 on Thursday, as crypto markets continue to cheer the US Treasury’s decision to double its debt buyback operations. The move has sharply improved market sentiment and liquidity conditions, helped trigger a short squeeze, and overall provided a positive catalyst for the broader crypto market.

The bond coup

Yesterday was marked by a coup from the US Treasury, which suddenly announced that it will ‘at least double’ the maximum size of its buyback operations for longer-term debt, hoping to ease pressure on long-term yields and borrowing costs. Phoah! The markets reacted heavily to the news. The US 10-year yield fell sharply, while the 30-year yield dropped from its highest levels since 2007.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.