Markets turned higher on Friday morning as positive signals emerged from trade negotiations between the US and China. Specifically, U.S. President Donald Trump characterized the first-day discussions as “very, very good” and plans to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House later today. Celebrations of a breakthrough also extended to the Brexit front with the GBP spiking 2% higher on Thursday on hopes of a fruitful meeting between British and Irish leaders over Brexit. Both the UK and Irish PM stated in a joint statement that "they could see a pathway to a possible deal"  and any further news down that direction is likely to help the GBP push even higher especially as we continue to see the USD taking a break from further strength.


US/China to Reach Partial Deal? 

In the U.S., anticipation for a partial deal solidified after Trump stated that the talks went very well and that his meeting with China's VP Liu He today further supported the positive tone. Also, news of the potential currency pact continued to make their rounds, which if true would mean the USD is likely to turn lower again in the mid-term picture, so it is crucial to watch these developments as they unfold to take advantage of these market-moving shifts. 


Turkish Escalates Campaign in Syria 

Turkey’s attacks in northeastern Syria continued for a second day, killing Kurdish fighters and seizing 11 towns. Trump stated there are only 3 ways to respond to this 1) take military action which he doesn't seem to want to do 2) hit Turkey financially and with sanctions which the US is proceeding with and 3) mediate a deal between Turkey and the Kurds, which probably still has a long way to go. As a result, the TRY sell-off cooled down a bit but could easily re-ignite on further stress.


Forex Preview: GBP Higher on Newfound Brexit Optimism

The dollar lost some steam and was last seen trading lower given the return of the risk-on mood and in anticipation of the currency pact. We should keep in mind however that the FED is extending its balance sheet again and is likely to cut rates another time on its next meeting which favours the view that the  USD has more outlook for weakness at the moment. Elsewhere, the EUR broke out to the upside but is still stuck at the 38-day MA which it needs to surpass so as not to fall back from here. The GBP was the winner of the day yesterday and could possibly continue to edge higher today if the Brexit breakthrough continues to become reality.



Oil Prices Higher, Gold Subdued

Oil prices climbed on Friday, building on gains in the previous session after producer club OPEC hinted at making deeper cuts in supply. What is more, 3% of the global oil tanker fleet was taken out of the market, as companies feared violating U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Elsewhere, gold prices dipped but remained still very close to the $1,500 which remains an alarm bell to me, not to be ignored. Why is nobody selling gold if everything is looking good? Some analysts say regardless of any deal, the damage is already done and a recession is coming, could that be the reason? 


BTC Wobbles

BTC first traded higher this morning on around 7k BTC short liquidations on Bitmex which quickly were followed by 9,8k BTC long liquidations on Bitmex that ultimately shows how volatile and undecided this market presently is.



Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76.8% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The content of this material and/or any information provided by BDSwiss Holding PLC should not in any way be construed, either explicitly or implicitly, directly or indirectly, as investment advice, recommendation or suggestion of an investment strategy with respect to a financial instrument and it is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make investment decisions, in any manner whatsoever. Any information, views or opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by BDSwiss Research Department to be reliable, but BDSwiss makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. BDSwiss Holding PLC accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of this data and information. The data and information contained therein are for background purposes only and do not purport to be full or complete.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD nears weekly highs as risk-on returns

The EUR/USD pair was dragged higher by a soaring Pound, now hovering around 1.1040. The market is all about sentiment, and this last dependent on Brexit and the US-China trade relationship.



GBP/USD surges to 5-month highs on reports of a draft Brexit deal

GBP/USD has leaped toward 1.28, hitting the highest since May. Reports suggest that the UK and the EU are zooming in on a deal. Details are awaited and negotiations continue.


USD/JPY in search of a firm direction, stuck in a range below mid-108.00s

The prevalent risk-on mood weighed on the JPY’s safe-haven status and extended support. A sharp fall in the US bond yields undermined the USD and failed to impress bullish traders.


Cryptos: Incumbents don't know to play well

The Libra project led by Facebook remains on track despite the first defections. Those who have abandoned the project are mostly payment gateways. Bitcoin's lack of tone weighs on Ethereum's mood.

Read more

Gold slumps to $1,480 area on Brexit hopes

The troy ounce of the precious metal continued to weaken in USD terms in the American trading hours as markets cheered reports claiming that the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) are closing in on a draft Brexit deal that could be announced before the end of the day on Tuesday.

Gold News

Forex Majors