Markets quiet, awaiting US July CPI tonight for direction

Asia market update: Markets quiet, awaiting US July CPI tonight for direction; US/Asian Tech earnings continue [Tencent and Hon Hai due]; US capital gains tax cut talk also in focus.

General trend and developments

- Market sideways movement continued in light trading absent any meaningful news out of the Middle East and ahead of the US July CPI release tonight. US Energy Sec Wright did post on X that the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to ~9M bpd, nearly half of the pre-conflict shipment levels.

- USD/JPY continuing to push higher with 160 again in its sights, the Yen now having retraced well over half its 9 handle gains a couple of weeks back on the triple Central Bank intervention. Additionally, Japan PM Takaichi reportedly to hold a cabinet reshuffle during Mid-Sept, at the earliest.

- The Russia-Ukraine war, on the other hand, has seen a further shift in Ukraine’s position. This follows from Ukrainian President Zelenskiy’s comments on turning over peace-proposals to the US, and Vance’s remarks in the FT that the US was responsible for stopping drone attacks on oil tankers at one of Russia’s multi-national owned CPC ports, as Kyiv seeks US licenses and purchases for Patriot air defense missiles.

- Kospi again led Asia, >+5%, with Samsung up >4% for a second day running, Hynix +6.5%. Activating the sidecar for the first time this week. (Note: the Korea Exchange activated the sidecar on the Kospi on average 3.75 times/week for the month of July, citing our TTN database).

-Tail-end of US tech earnings today saw SuperMicro +7%, CoreWeave +14% after hours. SuperMicro blew past EPS estimates and issued stellar fiscal Q1 revenue guidance while CoreWeave’s revenue more than doubled y/y and revealed a huge $104B order backlog. (Reminder, Nvidia still to come later in August).

- Foxconn and Tencent to come later today. Tencent shares -21.3% YTD on investor anxiety over heavy AI spending, while Hon Hai (FoxConn) shares +14% YTD on the other side of the AI ledger: Infrastructure build out contributing to its record revenues this year.

- Australian financials reporting today included CBA and Suncorp: CBA marginally higher as it posted record cash earnings but flagged cooling mortgage demand and overall economic growth slowing in Australia. Suncorp Group pushed higher by +4% after its FY26 results and share buyback announcement.

- New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Luxon survived his second leadership challenge of the year from his own National Party, winning an internal party vote after several hours of deliberations. Comes just two months out from the country’s General Election with the underlying pressure coming from National’s historically low poll ratings of ~30% heading into the contest.

- Overnight Bank of Korea’s Sen Dep Gov Ryoo Sangdai said there will be additional rate hikes, driven by robust economic growth and persistent core inflation, although he held off on any timing forecast.

- China PBOC for a second day in a row, and for just the third time since 2020, injected zero (nil) Yuan via the key 7-day reverse repo ops today, a sign Chinese banks are not wanting for cash at the present time.

- Singapore Digital Core REIT sheds its North Virginia data center stake with zero occupancy on “comprehensive refurbishment”.

- US President Trump said to consider capital gains tax cuts ahead of the fall-midterm elections. This follows a March 3rd, 2026 proposal from US Senator Cruz (R-TX) asking for the US Treasury to approve a $200B tax cut.

- US equity FUTs +0.1% to +0.2% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time-zone)

-Wed Aug 12th: (Wed night, OPEC Monthly Report, IN July CPI, US July CPI & Core CPI).

-Thu Aug 13th: JP July PPI, UK Q2 Prelim GDP & Jun Industrial Production & Jun Trade Balance, JP July Machine Tool Orders, CN July New Yuan Loans & Agg Finance & Money Supply, EU Jun Industrial Production, (Thu night, US July PPI & Core PPI).

-Fri Aug 14th: NZ July Business PMI, MY Q2 GDP, TW Q2 GDP, HK Q2 GDP, EU Prelim Q2 GDP & Jun Trade Balance, (Fri night, US July Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales, US Prelim Q3 Atlanta Fed GDPNow).

-Sat Aug 15th: KR July Trade Balance.

Holidays in Asia this week

-Mon Aug 10th: Singapore.

-Tue Aug 11th: Japan.

-Wed Aug 12th: Thailand.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 opens -0.5% at 9,205.

-(NZ) Follow up: New Zealand PM Luxon: I have support of the (National) Party; We are going back to work.

-(AU) ASX.AUASX Ltd comments on notice of proposed derivative action application: says there are no allegations against the ASX itself.

-(AU) Australia sells A$1.0B v A$1.0B indicated in 4.25% Mar 2036 Bonds: Avg Yield: 4.9923% v 4.8745% prior; bid-to-cover: 4.73x v 4.55x prior.

-(AU) CBA.AU Reports FY26 (A$) Cash profit 11.0B v 10.3B y/y, Rev 30.2B v 28.3B y/y (update).

China/Hong Kong

-(CN) Shanghai Composite opens flat at 3,933; (HK) Hang Seng opens -0.6% at 25,498.

-(CN) FT: Great jobs squeeze in China.

-(CN) SCMP: US export controls are achieving 'no' strategic gain - update.

-(CN) SCMP: What are China’s quant trading funds, why are they so controversial? - update.

-(CN) China auctions 50-Year ultra-long special treasury bonds; Yield at average accepted price: 2.2831%.

-(CN) China sells 1-month and 3-month bills.

-(CN) USD/CNY China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7882 v 6.7900 prior (strongest level since Feb 8th, 2023).

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY0B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net drains CNY5B v drains CNY46.5B prior (second straight nil injection, just third time since 2020).

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 opens flat at 66,960.

-(JP) Follow Up: Japan PM Takaichi might reshuffle cabinet during mid-Sept, at the earliest - Japan Times.

-(JP) Japan July M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5% prior.

-(JP) Japan PM Takaichi: Tanker carrying Canadian crude arrived in Japan - post on X.

-(JP) [Japan's private company] Turing CEO: Targets ~$10B valuation in US IPO by 2031; US listing may happen in next 5 years; To open US office within one year.

-(JP) Japan sells ¥250B in 10-year Inflation-Linked bonds; Yield at lowest accepted price: 0.860% v 0.578% prior, bid-to-cover: 3.27x v 3.40x prior.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi opens +1.5% at 6,439.

-(KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Sen Dep Gov Ryoo Sangdai: Will be additional rate hikes [EU market close].

-(KR) South Korea July Unemployment Rate: 2.8% v 2.7%e.

-(KR) Korea Exchange activates sidecar following Kospi 200 FUTs rising by +5%, programme trading halted for five-minutes.

-(KR) South Korea Military: North Korea fired ballistic missile [towards the East] - Yonhap.

-(KR) Follow up: South Korea Presidential Office holds meeting on North Korea missile launch, calls for end to provocations - Media.

-(KR) 006800.KR Reports Q2 (KRW) Net 1.9T, +369% y/y, Op 2.49T v 1.80Te, Rev 21.6T +181% y/y.

Other Asia

-(TW) Taiwan Foreign Ministry: Requested clarification from Indonesia on taking part in Chinese navy drill to East of Taiwan.

-(VN) Vietnam Finance Ministry sells total VND7.6T vs. VND13.0T indicated in 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, 15-year and 30-year bonds.

-(SG) Digital Core REIT: To sell a 39.0% interest in the property located at 8217 Linton Hall Road (the “Northern Virginia Facility”).

North America

-(US) President Trump said to consider capital gains tax cuts ahead of the fall midterm elections – US financial press [update].

-(US) July existing home sales: 4.06M V 4.05ME [US market close].

-(US) EIA: Raises 2026 US oil output 13.8M bpd; 2027 US oil output 14.15M bpd (prior: 13.78M, 14.03M); August Oil production averaged 13.83M bpd v 13.82M bpd m/m; Expects production to average 13.77M bpd in Sept [US market close].

-(CA) In today's meeting, Canada and US Trade Officials plan to map out potential new deal that can be presented to Pres Trump next week - CBC [US market close].

-(US) TREASURY $58B 3-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 4.291% V 4.179% PRIOR; BTC: 2.71x V 2.60X PRIOR.

-(US) ADP Preliminary Employment Change for 4-weeks ending July 25th: +8.3K v +14.5K prior [US market close].

-(US) CRWV Reports Q2 -$1.14 v -$1.17e, Rev $2.58B v $2.54Be; Guides Q2 Rev $2.45-2.60B v $2.70Be [US market close].

-(US) President Trump: Plane that I flew on would be at 'greater risk'; Was following what secret service said during flight change - Patriot Games Finale, Spire Academy, Geneva, Ohio [Restricted Pool].

-(US) Fed's Collins (non-voter): Iran war squeezing lower-income Americans; Would back September interest rate rise if inflation remains hot - FT.

-(US) ALGN China court rules Angelalign [6699.HK] infringed extraction-gap-closure patent; Awards CNY10M damages.

-(PA) Panama Canal fees hit record high; cites factors including the Iran war and El Nino - FT [update].

Europe

-(EU) EU Trade Balance: €1.6B v €0.8B prior; Italy Jun Total Trade Balance: €4.2B v €4.8B prior [EU market close].

-(UR) Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy: Ukraine has turned over proposals to the US negotiators for a plan to end the Russia War [EU market close].

-(UR) VP Vance asked Ukraine to halt strikes on tankers using Russian port - FT.

-(RU) Romania Def Min: Romania has destroyed two Russian Gerbera-type drones in our Black Sea exclusive zone near the Neptun Deep offshore gas project [US market close].

-(RU) Russia July YTD Budget Balance (RUB): -6.544T v -5.731T prior.

-(NL) Netherlands July CPI M/M: +1.6% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.1% prelim [EU market close].

-(NL) Netherlands July Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.6% v 1.5% prelim; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.9% prelim [EU market close].

-(NL) Netherlands Jun Trade Balance: €B v €6.7B prior; Exports Y/Y: 3.1% v 4.8% prior; Imports Y/Y: 1.4% v 6.3% prior [EU market close].

-(CZ) Czech July Final CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.6% prelim; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7% prelim [EU market close].

-(CZ) Czech Jun Import Price Index Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.2% prior; Export Price Index Y/Y: 1.6% v 0.8% prior [EU market close].

-(TR) Turkey Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: 11.8% v 12.8% prior [EU market close].

-(FI) Finland Jun Current Account Balance: €0.0B v -€0.5B prior.

Middle East

-(IR) Pakistan Defense Min: Signals US-Iran are close to "some arrangement"; Things are shaping up in favor of peace [US market close].

-(IR) US Energy Sec Wright: The seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to ~9M bpd - X post [US market close].

-(IR) US forces earlier today reportedly fire on Panama-flagged ship attempting to run blockade of Iranian ports – WSJ [US market close].

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 +0.8%; ASX 200 -0.5%; Hang Seng -1.3%; Shanghai Composite +0.2%; Kospi +3.1%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.2%; DAX -0.1%; FTSE100 -0.2%.

EUR 1.1545-1.1532; JPY 159.46-159.20; AUD 0.7069-0.7055; NZD 0.5885-0.5866.

Gold +0.6% at $4,396/oz; BTC -0.3% at $63,853; WTI Crude Oil +0.8% at $83.88/bbl; Copper +0.4% at $6.6538/lbs.