Live Coverage: Core PCE and Personal Spending meet rattled markets

How is the US consumer doing? That question is on markets' minds for quite some time. Apart from core PCE – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – the Personal Spending figure is of high interest. They are published simultaneously and that means fireworks. 

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Why these figures matter

The Federal Reserve (Fed) aims for 2% inflation – and its measure is the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (core PCE). While it is published after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, this seemingly lagging indicator matters – because the Fed says it does. 

Core PCE is set to remain above the 2% YoY level, and any upside surprise may trigger worries of higher interest rates.

This time, Personal Spending will have its say. Similar to core PCE, it is a late look at consumption – but this time, it is of higher importance after the earlier Retail Sales report for January showed a substantial decline. Moreover, two consumer sentiment surveys declined sharply. 

With end-of-month flows in the mix, volatility could explode. 

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