Leading Economic Index Signals Continued Growth

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) jumped 0.6 percent in December, following an upwardly revised 0.5 percent print in November. The rapidly rising index suggests continued robust growth in first half of 2018.

Don’t Stop Me Now

• The LEI continued its impressive run of growth in December, with the latest print representing the 16th month of consecutive gains. The index was upwardly revised for both November and October to 0.5 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively, suggesting continued economic firming.
• The Conference Board’s Coincident and Lagging Economic Indices increased 0.3 percent and 0.7 percent in December, further evidence of steady and stable growth.

Cause I’m Having a Good Time

• The ISM new orders component was the largest contributor, adding 0.29 percentage points to the index, its largest contribution since January 2004.  Financial markets have largely reacted positively to the recently passed tax plan, as shown by the stock price component, which added 0.11 percentage points to the headline figure.
• The interest rate spread contributed 0.12 points to the index, while average hours worked was the only negative factor.

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