Latin America: Adding value to critical minerals beyond mining

BNP Paribas Team BNP Paribas

Reserves are concentrated in Latin America, while refining is dominated by China (2025, % of total)

High potential

The global race for artificial intelligence and the electrification of economies is leading to an increase in demand for metals. A recent study by S&P Global indicates that global electricity consumption is projected to grow by nearly 50% by 2040, fuelling a sustained rise in demand for copper, lithium, nickel, and other critical minerals. According to the International Energy Agency, demand for copper could rise by 30 to 40% by 2040, while demand for lithium could increase four- to sixfold, depending on the pace of adoption of low-carbon technologies.

Latin America possesses a significant share of the world’s critical mineral resources needed to meet this demand. However, the abundance of natural resources will not necessarily translate into accelerated economic growth in these countries.

According to data from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), nearly 1,200 mining projects have been carried out in Latin America over the past two decades. Although critical minerals represent only around 25% of the total number of projects, they account for over 40% of the investment value, illustrating their strategic importance and capital intensity. According to the OECD, the number of lithium investment projects has increased ninefold since 2016, primarily in Argentina, followed by Chile and Brazil. Investment projects in nickel, cobalt, and rare earths have also seen substantial growth since 2020, particularly in Brazil.

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BNP Paribas Team

BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.

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