ING Global Economics Team
ING Economic and Financial Analysis
Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged. In the UK, the Bank of England CFO survey will likely show further inflation progress.
Eurozone: Services inflation expected to come in higher in March
Next week’s eurozone data will focus on both inflation and the labour market. Inflation had been high month-on-month in February and January thanks to various reasons related to government measures and stronger than hoped for services inflation. In March, services inflation will be impacted by the Easter effect again, as the holiday comes early this year. That adds to inflation due to early holidays, but should subtract from it in May. For the European Central Bank, it will not be easy to look through all of this ahead of the April governing council meeting –but as ECB President Christine Lagarde stated at the March press conference, we’ll know a lot more in June.
UK: Bank of England CFO survey to show further inflation progress
The Bank of England has said it is watching services inflation and wage growth to guide policy this year, but we also know it pays close attention to its in-house survey of Chief Financial Officers. This has been pointing to less aggressive expectations of price rises among companies, but wage growth expectations have been stuck at around 5% for some time. Those expectations did tick lower in the February survey though, and we'll be looking to see if pay growth is scaled back further in the next survey due next week.
This survey won't move the dial for the BoE's May meeting, where we still think a rate cut is unlikely. But if we get more progress on this survey measure, coupled with some favourable data on CPI for April/May, this could bring a June cut into play. For now, we're sticking with our call for an August rate cut – but it's a relatively close call.
Key events in developed markets next week
Source: Refinitiv, ING
Read the original analysis: Key events in developed markets next week
Content disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more here: https://think.ing.com/content-disclaimer/
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD bounces off lows, retests 1.1370
Following an early drop to the vicinity of 1.1310, EUR/USD now manages to regain pace and retargets the 1.1370-1.1380 band on the back of a tepid knee-jerk in the US Dollar, always amid growing optimism over a potential de-escalation in the US-China trade war.
GBP/USD trades slightly on the defensive in the low-1.3300s
GBP/USD remains under a mild selling pressure just above 1.3300 on Friday, despite firmer-than-expected UK Retail Sales. The pair is weighed down by a renewed buying interest in the Greenback, bolstered by fresh headlines suggesting a softening in the rhetoric surrounding the US-China trade conflict.
Gold remains offered below $3,300
Gold reversed Thursday’s rebound and slipped toward the $3,260 area per troy ounce at the end of the week in response to further improvement in the market sentiment, which was in turn underpinned by hopes of positive developments around the US-China trade crisis.
Ethereum: Accumulation addresses grab 1.11 million ETH as bullish momentum rises
Ethereum saw a 1% decline on Friday as sellers dominated exchange activity in the past 24 hours. Despite the recent selling, increased inflows into accumulation addresses and declining net taker volume show a gradual return of bullish momentum.
Week ahead: US GDP, inflation and jobs in focus amid tariff mess – BoJ meets
Barrage of US data to shed light on US economy as tariff war heats up. GDP, PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls reports to headline the week. Bank of Japan to hold rates but may downgrade growth outlook. Eurozone and Australian CPI also on the agenda, Canadians go to the polls.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.