How to trade the US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index with EUR/USD

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey serves as an early indicator for the sector, and it has a significant impact on markets.
The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 0 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 36 pips in the following 4 hours.

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.67 deviation (25.95) [BUY Pair]
Key Resistance Level: 1.1650

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.67 or less(25.95 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 28 pips in the first 15 minutes and 80 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1650 capped the pair's recovery on Tuesday. It is followed by 1.1730 which provided support to the pair on June 13th, and 1.1850 that served as a high point on June 14th.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.75 deviation (30.2 ) [SELL Pair]

Key Support Level: 1.1510

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.75 or higher(30.2 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 33 pips in the first 15 minutes and 69 pips in the following 4 hours.

Some support awaits at the June 15th and 19th lows of 1.1540 and stronger support is at 1.1510 which is the lowest level since July 2017. Even lower, 1.1480 is notable for serving as an important line last summer.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

EUR USD Technical Analysis chart June 20 2018

More data

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 11 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 41 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a positive surprise of 4.42 regarding relative deviation, and the EURUSD reached a 20 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 32 pips 4 hours after that.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

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