How November could be a bearish month for Bitcoin

We are in a bull market. That’s not a new statement. But this time, the bull cycle is unlike previous ones. Things have changed: institutions, market makers, and even governments are now showing deep interest in the crypto industry.

In earlier cycles, fundamentals and a bit of technical analysis were usually enough to understand money flow. But today, we also have to analyze the gold market, stocks, geopolitical tensions (like wars), and Smart Money Concepts.

Why this cycle feels different

Many crypto gurus were calling for long positions because the probability of rate cut is more than 80% in September. But have you noticed something in this cycle! Every google news in this bull cycle is treated as selling the news event. 

Whether it is rate cut news, CPI data, PPI data or any other major news, we witnessed a correction or pullback after that event. As I have mentioned earlier, big players are now already in this market and it is only the retailers who always are the gold mine for them. 

This week we got joblessness data, as expected. But the market is already priced in, on releasing we see a drop in BTC price. Trump continuously pressured Jerome Powell for an interest rate cut. Don't you think it is already priced in?

Some technicals

November is often called "pumpember" for Bitcoin, especially in bull markets. BTC is currently trading around $102,250. The last strong support is between $98,000 and $100,000. If that breaks, we could see Bitcoin dip to the $90,000 range.

Why do I think such a drop is likely? In both bull and bear markets, price never moves in a straight line. Exchanges don’t want you to win. If you profit, they lose, and most major exchanges are still centralized. There's significant liquidity sitting lower on both the medium and long time frames.

In a bull market, corrections of 25% to 40% are completely normal. So far, we haven’t even seen a 15% pullback. Around 85% of traders are still in profit. That’s why a correction is not just possible, it’s expected.

Let’s break down November into three parts:

First 10 days: Historically bearish during previous bull cycles.

Middle 10 days: Often see a fake-out or trap for traders, followed by a real correction.

Final 10 days: Usually a period of consolidation. If we’re in the year following a halving, this sets up for a bullish fourth quarter.

September rate cut and its impact

As mentioned earlier, there was a strong chance of a 0.25% rate cut this month. But if that's such good news, why are market makers selling their holdings quietly? Do they not see what’s coming — or do they know more than we do?

Bitcoin has climbed from $16,000 to $124,000, a gain of over 500%. For institutions, whales, and market manipulators, that may already be enough. The long-term potential of crypto may be as big as the internet, but the path is never straight.

Fundamentals like CPI, PPI, PEC, and unemployment data have been in line with expectations, but still show increases compared to previous months. The US government continues to pressure the Fed for a rate cut, and many expect it to happen. But still, big money isn't rotating back into risky assets. Instead, they’re quietly selling.

This is why I expect a "sell the news" event. At the same time, the Fear and Greed Index is neutral, and funding rates are turning positive. That’s a warning sign.

Corporate insiders are also dumping stocks. That’s a red flag that aligns with Bitcoin's fragile structure. If they're selling stocks while prices are strong, don’t be surprised if the same pattern hits crypto.

Just this week, Satya Nadella (CEO of Microsoft) dumped $75M MSFT, 15% of his bag in a single shot. Sounds like a local top for me as last time when he sold so big was November 2021, the exact top. The day after he sold 15% of his bag, he met Trump alongside other tech CEO's. Another thing is "Red Moon". Money makers/players treated it as a sign of bloodbath in the market.

Take the profit

In trading, you haven't taken the profit if you are in profit! You are going to rekt. Book your profit if you are in profit, it is the key to success in crypto trading. The market is full with more chances for more good entries and always comes with a second plan. Don't fall in love with your bags.

Final thoughts

November comes full with market manipulators. You will see strong red and green candles to shake and liquidate the shorts and longs. We have a big event this month as well. Jerome Powell speech, rate cut decision, recession and much more in the queue. As per my data, we are going to see a huge pull back this month