Gold today: Sellers stay in charge below $4,000 as a steeper Fed hike looms

Gold (XAU/USD) is back below $4,000 on Thursday, and the two latest analyses on FXStreet point to the same culprit. FXStreet's Dhwani Mehta sees the metal as a sell-on-rise trade as markets price a steeper Federal Reserve (Fed) hike in December, while independent analyst Nadim Zidan argues that elevated yields are keeping fresh capital away from Gold even as geopolitical concerns linger. The split here is not about direction but about the trigger: one camp watches the Fed, the other watches the bond market.

FXStreet's Dhwani Mehta: Technical setup on the day chart favors sellers

Dhwani Mehta sees Gold pressured by hotter-than-expected US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) data for October, with core prices up 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast. That pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield back to 5% and the US Dollar INDEX DXY above 103.00, while the CME FedWatch Tool now shows a December hike as a done deal and a 10% chance of a 50 bps move. On the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $3,981, below the 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA crossed below the 100-day SMA on Monday, confirming a Bear Cross. The RSI near 43 is "suggesting selling pressure dominates but lacks strong momentum for an immediate capitulation," she wrote. Initial resistance sits at the 21-day SMA around $4,049, while the Fibonacci cycle low at $3,868 is the floor where buyers could try to stabilize the yellow metal. — Read the full report

Independent analyst Nadim Zidan: Despite different concerns, Gold is falling

Nadim Zidan calls Gold "perhaps the most overlooked development" of the session, with the metal around $3,964, down nearly 0.9%, and silver off more than 1%. He notes that a softer crypto market and elevated geopolitical concerns would normally support Gold, but points to yields as the dominant macro variable this year. "As long as investors can earn compelling returns from sovereign debt, gold faces a higher hurdle to attract fresh capital," he wrote, adding that the same headwind is weighing on crypto, with Bitcoin slipping back toward $73,500. — Read the full report

The takeaway

Both analysts lean bearish on Gold below $4,000, and both trace the pressure to a restrictive rate backdrop: Mehta through Fed hike bets and a firm US Dollar, Zidan through yields high enough to pull capital away from non-yielding assets. Neither sees a bullish catalyst yet. Watch Thursday's US Jobless Claims and upcoming Fed speakers: a hawkish read keeps the 10-year yield near 5% and puts the $3,868 floor in play, while any recovery has to clear the 21-day SMA at $4,049 first.

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)