CoreWeave sparks a tech Bid/the WSJ and NYT’s dropped the jensen story

And the see saw continues…..Technology had another winning day…. It was chips, AI infrastructure, cloud names, memory names, software, cybersecurity, disruptive tech, etc.…. And who got it started? Core Weave! Up nearly 25% after beating revenue expectations and raising its outlook. And guess what else? The cash coming in from contracts it already has should cover its debt payments – according to the C-suite.

Remember two weeks ago? Remember when there was this CRWV hysteria? Remember when investors were asking - Who’s paying for all this, and when does the cash come back? Well… yesterday investors finally got an answer they liked. Throw in reports of a $10 billion quarter at OpenAI and even more buyers for the Anthropic IPO than there are shares to go around, and off they went. Even NVDA rallied by nearly 3%! (more below).

The Dow gained 0.5%, the S&P added 1.3%, the Nasdaq rose 1.6%, the Russell gained 0.9%, the Transports were up 1.2%, the Equal Weight S&P ended the day up 0.8% while the Mag 7 tacked on 0.4%.

10 of the 11 S&P sectors ended higher…only Consumer Discretionary failed to participate – losing less than 0.1%. The only trades that really lost ground were the contra trades (the ones betting against the market) – the DOG lost 0.5%, the SH lost 1.3%, the PSQ gave back 2.3%, the VIXY lost 6.8% while the leveraged S&P short trade gave back 4%.

And then the bell rang…and before the ringing stopped – the WSJ came out with another hit piece…..they reported that Nvidia’s board was preparing to throw Jensen out after the allegations of an affair with a possible Chinese spy.

Then the NYTimes reported a second affair……. only complicating the matter…..This one was with Kimberly Powell, an NVDA executive who reports directly to him. I mean this borders on the absurd – you can’t make this sh*t up. And so, he is toast…. that’s it – the board now working with an outside firm to identify possible CEO candidates….and now come the downgrades…. Baird, Bernstein and Oppenheimer all cutting their ratings while Morgan Stanley took it off their ‘top picks’ list.

So…is this the end of NVDA? I don’t think so. Does it change what I’m willing to pay for it today? You bet it does. Customers have spent years building around Nvidia’s chips, networking and CUDA software. That gives the business staying power. But if Jensen goes, who takes over? Can that person keep the product roadmap on track and the big customers on board? And does any of this change what Washington lets NVDA sell to China? Give me those answers and then we can talk about what multiple the stock deserves.

For now, I’m holding what I own and waiting to put new money to work. On November 17th investors will want to hear who’s running the company, whether customers are changing orders and whether management is standing behind its guidance.

On the chart, $150 is the level I’m watching. And before you decide whether to buy the dip, check how much Nvidia you already own. Count the shares you own outright and the exposure you have through your ETFs. It can add up fast. Risk management/portfolio management is key – this may be a tough lesson for anyone that does not manage their exposure size properly.

The bond market was closed for veterans’ day – so we need to use Tuesday’s action as reference points.. The 2 yr at 4.72%, the 10 yr at 4.98% and the 30 yr at 5.34%.

Oil bounced – WTI closed up 0.6% at $86.53. Diplomatic negotiations once again getting hung up on the ‘enriched nuclear uranium’ – Iran wants to keep it, while Trump says no dice and so the conflict continues. Oil is down 0.8% this morning on the API report that showed rising US inventories of about 9 million barrels. OPEC+ also announced a rise in crude production for October – led by the Saudi’s. We remain in the $84.30 (trendline support) - $92.50 (trendline resistance) trading range.

Gold once again got knocked down – falling 1.1% to end the day $3,986 and this morning it is getting hit again – down $40 or 1% to trade at $3,946. It continues to be worries over inflation after Tuesday hotter CPI report and ahead of tomorrow’s potentially hot PPI report. If gold continues to get hit – watch $3,882 – it was the low reached in early November – if that fails to hold – then we could see gold drop to the $3,500 range.

Eco data today is about existing home sales which are expected to be down 3.5%. Think rates and time of year.

This morning – European markets are higher…. But there is some pressure on tech…not a lot, but some…and that makes sense. ASML a key name in the sector and a Slatestone favorite is down 2.5% - but is still up 48% ytd.

US futures are mixed… Dow futures up 20 pts, S&P’s down 30, Nasdaq is down 240 pts while the Russel is flat.

The S&P closed at 7,619 – up 100 pts. leaving us kissing the upper end of the trading band defined by the trendlines…7,330/7,620. This morning- the S&P is expected to trade lower (think tech exposure) leaving us solidly between support/resistance.

Earnings today include NBIS (AI Cloud) and BN (financials/alts) before the opening… and CSCO (Tech/Networking) and AMAT (Tech/Semis) after the close. For the AI trade, Nebius is the first read on cloud demand. Cisco gives us the temperature on networking while Applied Materials tells us what chipmakers are willing to spend. Nvidia reports next Tuesday, November 17th, after the close.