Gold stalls despite war headlines: Bullish and bearish scenarios to watch

US airstrikes hit Iran, Israel hints at ceasefire

Global markets were jolted over the weekend after the United States launched airstrikes on Iranian military installations, citing retaliation for an alleged plot to target U.S. assets in the region. This aggressive move reignited tensions in the already fragile Middle East, especially between Israel and Iran.

Following the U.S. bombing campaign, Israel stepped up its military operations in southern Iran, striking what it called key weapons facilities. However, by Monday evening, Israeli officials floated the possibility of a temporary ceasefire with Trump praising the move.

Yet, Iranian officials have not acknowledged any formal truce, calling Israel the aggressor and stating that any resolution must be led by Tehran on its own terms. This uncertainty is keeping geopolitical risk high.

What this means for Gold

Gold thrives in uncertainty and we’re swimming in it. The U.S. strikes, Israeli war intentions, and Iran’s responses all point to a fragile, volatile security situation that could reignite at any moment.

Key implications for gold traders:

• Safe-haven flows are returning amid war risk and rising oil prices.

• A pause in Israeli aggression may offer short-term relief but no resolution means no full unwind of risk hedges.

• Traders are positioning for either a breakout or a deeper range-bound trap, depending on political developments and risk appetite.

Add to this the inflationary pressure from rising oil and the looming Fed Core PCE data this week, and gold has a full plate of macro catalysts.

Technical outlook

Current price action shows price consolidating within a defined range.

The issue here is gold is not consolidating above or below equilibrium, signaling a lack of momentum on either side despite geopolitical tensions, particularly, recent war news on Israel-Iran conflict.

This is a perfect example of waiting for confirmation before hitting those buy-sell orders. News can give us information, but the price action is not, yet, showing us any signs of movement, either on the upside or downside.

This would also mean that orders are still not overwhelming the market and not showing whether its tilting to bulls or bears.

Key Levels:

• Resistance: $3,451.34.

• Support: $3,293.22.

Bullish Scenario:

If gold holds above the sweep low of the micro range (in black) and reclaims the mid-range level of the bigger ranger (in red), a drive toward $3,451 becomes likely as long as we pierce through the $3,400 level and gets a follow-through. This would align with:

• Continued geopolitical uncertainty.

• A dovish tilt from the Fed later this week.

• Rising energy inflation fears.

Look for confirmation via a bullish market structure shift on lower timeframes and strong momentum above the range midpoint.

Targets:

• $3,400.00.

• $3,450.00.

Bearish Scenario:

If the ceasefire gains traction and Iran steps back, risk appetite may rebound, dragging gold down. A clean break and close below $3,300 would open downside potential to the $3,250 level or even $3,200.

Watch for rejection from the midrange or failed rallies as signs of weakness.

Final thoughts

Gold is stuck between explosive geopolitical risk and short-term relief rallies. While the U.S. bombing of Iran stirred the pot, Israel’s ceasefire signal could calm things but only temporarily. As long as Iran remains defiant and war outcomes remain unresolved, gold retains upside pressure.

Markets are entering a pivotal week. Stay nimble, trade the levels, and wait for technical confirmation.