Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD waiting for the war to end

XAU/USD Current price: $5,171

• The United States Consumer Price Index came in at 2.4% YoY in February as expected.
• The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to counteract supply disruptions.
• XAU/USD stays range-bound as concerns ease, but remain in the background.

Gold prices are in consolidation mode on Wednesday, with XAU/USD trading around $5,170 with a modest downward bias. Market participants learn that inflation in the United States (US) as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) steadied at 2.4% YoY in February, while the monthly CPI posted a modest uptick, printing at 0.3% against the 0.2% reported in January.

The news had no material impact on financial markets, with investors maintaining the focus on Iran war developments. There’s a lot going on in the Persian Gulf, with continued back-and-forth attacks and turmoil around the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump noted that the war will end soon because there is practically nothing left to target in Iran, although there’s no end to the conflict in sight.

More significant news came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) as it finally agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption resulting from the war. Oil prices hold within familiar levels, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil barrel trading at around $85.

The US Dollar (USD) advances modestly in the American session, as Wall Street opened with a sour tone. Still, action across the board remains constrained. As per Gold, the commodity is suffering despite tumultuous times, as investors rather seek safety on the Greenback. At this point, an end to the conflict is needed for the bright metal to resume reacting to the market’s sentiment.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU&US near-term bias is mildly bullish as, in the 4-hour chart, price holds above the rising 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while the 202-period SMA holds below the shorter ones. This configuration points to an underlying uptrend that recently corrected but is stabilizing, with price reclaiming ground after dipping toward the medium-term averages. The Momentum indicator remains in positive territory, though off its recent peak, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers just above the 50 line, aligning with a modest bullish tone.

Immediate support emerges near the 20-period SMA around $5,154, followed by the 100-period SMA close to $5,142, where prior consolidation built a platform for the latest bounce. A deeper setback would expose the 200-period SMA near $5,082, which marks more entrenched trend support. On the upside, initial resistance sits around the recent swing high at $5,200, with a break above opening the path toward the $5,230 region, where the last impulse leg stalled. As long as price respects support at the clustered moving averages, the path of least resistance remains to the upside, with any pullbacks expected to attract dip buyers ahead of the 200-period SMA.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD has a limited bullish potential. The price holds above the rising 20‑day, 100‑day, and 200‑day SMAs, which keep the broader uptrend intact despite recent back‑and‑forth sessions. The 20‑day SMA around $5,110 stands as a near-term barrier. At the same time, the Momentum indicator remains in positive territory, though off its recent extremes, while the RSI indicator shows a similar behavior, hinting at limited buying interest around.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)