Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovers its shine on US-Iran deal renewed hopes

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,544

Iran and the United States reportedly reached an agreement.
US data showed the economy remained resilient in May despite ongoing turmoil.
XAU/USD shrugged off the near-term negative tone, further gains still unclear.

Spot Gold trades in the $4,540 region, recovering in the American afternoon. The US Dollar (USD) started the day on the back foot amid hopes the United States (US) and Iran were working their way towards a deal. Optimism, however, faded as the day went by, with the usual standoff between both reviving concerns. As a result, the Greenback and Oil recovered, while high-yielding assets retreated.

Mid American session, however, headlines indicated that both countries have reached an agreement via Pakistan mediation, and that the announcement will be made in a matter of hours. The USD resumed its slide and pushed XAU/USD into positive territory.

Data-wise, S&P Global released the flash estimate of the US Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), confirming a reading of 51.7 in May, matching the April outcome. Manufacturing output improved to 55.3 from the previous 54.5, also surpassing expectations of 54. Finally, the Services PMI resulted at 50.9, slightly below the 51 posted in April.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD has shrugged off the negative stance, but additional gains are still unclear. Technical indicators turned north, but remain below their midlines. At the same time, the pair has crossed above a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), now providing near-term support at around $4,520. The same chart shows that the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their downward slopes far above the current level, limiting the upward scope.

Bigger time frames, however, hint at bears holding the grip but staying on pause. Technical indicators in the daily chart aim marginally lower within negative levels, but lack directional strength. At the same time, a bearish 20 SMA stands at $4,620, providing strong resistance while the 100 SMA holds far above the shorter one, further limiting the bullish case.

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

GBP/USD: Daily gains remain capped by 1.3650

GBP/USD leaves behind Monday’s pessimism and advances marginally on Tuesday. Cable’s humble gains, however, appear to have met quite a decent resistance in the 1.3650 zone for now, in a context of a slight selling pressure hovering around the Greenback.

EUR/USD picks some pace, retests 1.1670

EUR/USD advances modestly and revisits the 1.670 zone on turnaround Tuesday. The pair’s slight advance comes after two daily drops in a row and follows the humble decline in the US Dollar, while investors gear up for upcoming US data and the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Gold: Buyers still hold the grip

Gold navigates the middle of its daily range near $4,650 per troy ounce on Tuesday. The lack of clear direction in the yellow metal comes on the back of the widespread cautious tone among market participants, a mildly offered stance in the US Dollar and a marked decline in US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin soars past $80K as Ethereum and XRP hold gains

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $80,000 on Tuesday. This is the highest level the Crypto King has traded since mid-May, underscoring a positive shift in investors' risk-on sentiment, liquidity conditions and the technical outlook.

Nvidia earnings: A quick look at expectations

The 2026 Q2 earnings season is nearly over for S&P 500 members, with the reporting cycle notably positive. But looming large this week is none other than AI-favorite NVIDIA (NVDA) , whose results will wrap up the reporting cycle for the Magnificent Seven group as well.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.