Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD ranges around $4,700, with eyes on Trump-Xi meet

Gold is in a bullish consolidation phase in Asia on Thursday, following the recent pullback from three-week highs of $4,774.

Markets are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the highly anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, which is currently underway.

Will the Trump-Xi meet re-energize Gold bulls?

Gold is lacking a clear directional bias so far this week, undermined by a renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) as a safe haven amid no signs of progress on the US-Iran peace talks and rising inflationary concerns-led increased bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike this year.

Against this backdrop, the Greenback stands tall near weekly highs against its major currency rivals, leaving the USD-sensitive Gold struggles in the lower bound of this week’s range.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reports confirmed the war impact on energy prices, backing hawkish Fed expectations and checking the upside attempts in the non-interest-bearing bright metal.

The US CPI rose 3.8% in the 12 months through April, the biggest year-on-year increase since May 2023, while the annual PPI for final demand surged 1.4% last month, the largest rise since March 2022, after an upwardly revised 0.7% growth in March.

Looking ahead, Gold traders look forward to the outcome of the ongoing Trump-Xi Summit for a fresh breakout or a sell-off. Both leaders are expected to prioritize trade talks over the Iran war.

However, any development on the prolonged Mideast conflict could trigger a big reaction across financial markets, including in Gold.

Beyond geopolitics, the US Retail Sales data for April could also provide some fresh trading impetus to Gold markets.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,690.16. The metal hovers just above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,683.90 while remaining capped by the 50-day SMA at $4,740.26, leaving the near-term bias broadly neutral within a consolidative phase. The reclaimed downward resistance trend line, whose break comes from around $4,493.60, now sits well below price and hints at a market that is no longer in a clear downtrend, though the 100-day SMA near $4,790.25 still looms as an additional topside barrier. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 49.6 underscores this range-bound stance, suggesting balanced momentum rather than directional conviction.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA around $4,740, with the 100-day SMA near $4,790 forming the next hurdle that bulls would need to clear to reassert a stronger uptrend. On the downside, initial support emerges at the current band just above the 21-day SMA around $4,684, with the prior downward trend-line break zone and the much lower 200-day SMA near $4,341 providing deeper structural demand should a sharper correction unfold.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)