Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD losing steam below $4,800

XAU/USD Current price: $4,790

• Uncertainty surrounding United States-Iran talks undermines the market mood.
• US President Trump announced a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel.
• XAU/USD loses near-term strength amid resurgent US Dollar demand.

Spot Gold trades flat on a daily basis, not far below the $4,800 level, as market players remain in wait-and-see mode on hopes for a permanent ceasefire between Israel and the United States (US). In the absence of relevant macroeconomic data, speculative interest is solely focused on war-related headlines.

So far, the Strait of Hormuz continues to suffer a double blockage, although some tankers are passing through it. Iran insists on charging a toll, planning it to be paid via Iranian banks. Talks between Washington and Tehran are nowhere near confirmed, although US President Donald Trump announced Israel and Lebanon will start a 10-day ceasefire on Thursday at 5 pm Eastern time.

However, such a ceasefire seems more fragile than the one between Iran and the US. On the one hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted that the IDF is going to remain in the South Lebanon buffer zone, while the Israeli cabinet has not held a vote on the ceasefire, according to I24 News. Then, a senior Hezbollah source told Al Jazeera that as long as the occupation remains, Lebanon has the right to resist by all means to force its withdrawal.

Mounting uncertainty provides the Greenback with near-term support across the FX board, and helps XAU/USD slide below the $4,800 mark at the time being.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The near-term picture for Gold turned neutral. In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades under both the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4,797.91 and the 200-period SMA at $4,819.69, suggesting rallies remain vulnerable while these levels cap the topside. The Momentum has cooled, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovering near the 50 mark and the Momentum indicator retreating toward its midline, reflecting the absence of buying interest rather than supporting a fresh leg lower.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-period SMA around $4,797.91, with a sustained break exposing the denser barrier at the 200-period SMA near $4,819.69. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-period SMA around $4,665.97, where a loss would likely open the way to a deeper corrective phase, while holding above this level would keep the current consolidation bias intact within the broader uptrend structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)