Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD lacks bullish conviction amid US-Iran impasse, ahead of US jobs data

Gold is attempting a tepid bounce around $4,050 in Asian trading on Tuesday, stalling a two-day decline amid looming US-Iran risks, as markets brace for a slew of US jobs reports due later this week. US JOLTS Job Openings Survey is in focus on Tuesday.

Gold to keep its range play intact

Gold buyers lack conviction despite the renewed uptick, as a gradual recovery in the US Dollar (USD) continues to limit the USD-denominated bright metal.

The Greenback sustains its overnight rebound from weekly troughs, following renewed tensions between the United States (US) and Iran and strong US ISM Manufacturing PMI data.

President Donald Trump said on Monday that the US was engaged in talks with Iran, warning that this was Tehran's "last chance" to reach a favorable agreement and bring the five-month-old war to an end.

However, Iran swiftly dismissed the claim, stating that no negotiations were underway or planned.

The ISM said on Monday that its Manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 last month, the highest reading since May 2022, from 53.3 in June, while beating the market forecast of 54.

Additionally, fresh concerns around the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy outlook, amid a recent New York Times report that Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly weighing whether the US central bank should hold fewer policy meetings each year, keep the USD’s haven demand underpinned.

All eyes now remain on developments in the Middle East conflict, particularly the potential diplomatic talks and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Also of note are the US JOLTS Job Openings data that will kick off the employment reports due this week, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) the main event risk.

The US labor data could help provide fresh clues on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory amid persisting concerns over elevated inflation. Markets continue pricing in a 65% chance that the Fed will raise rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, after a divided Fed left rates unchanged at its July policy meeting.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,060.18, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,061.33 and remains well under the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs at $4,165.72, $4,406.82 and $4,490.03 respectively. The cluster of overhead averages suggests that the recent recovery is capped within a broader corrective phase, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 46.91 keeps momentum in a neutral-to-soft zone rather than signaling an oversold market.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA at $4,061.33, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,165.72, with higher barriers at the 100-day SMA near $4,406.82 and the 200-day SMA around $4,490.03. On the downside, the key structural support is the broken-uptrend line around $3,951.44, where a clear daily close below that level would likely expose a deeper pullback, while holding above it would keep XAU/USD in a broad consolidation beneath the dominant moving average ceiling.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US labour data in focus as Deutsche Bank flags modest payrolls gain

Economists at Deutsche Bank highlight that, “looking at the US and then the rest of the world in more detail, attention will centre on whether incoming data reinforce the view that the US labour market remains resilient.” In that context, the bank’s economists “expect Friday’s July payrolls report to show employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading, while private payrolls are also expected to rise by +65k after +49k previously,” underscoring their view of a still‑firm, if moderating, labour backdrop.