Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds above $4,800, retains the positive bias

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,802

Hopes that the Middle East crisis will soon end undermine demand for the US Dollar.
Crude Oil prices consolidate near weekly lows, reflecting investors' optimism.
XAU/USD retreats from fresh weekly highs, holds above $4,800.

Spot Gold consolidates above the $4,800 mark on Wednesday, marginally lower on a daily basis. Action is limited across the FX board as market players remain in wait-and-see mode ahead of fresh Iran war developments

There has been no progress in the Middle East over the last 24 hours, although conditions have not deteriorated either. The Strait of Hormuz is suffering a double blockage, limited by Iran to other producer countries, and by the US to Iranian tankers. Talks remain pending, although it seems that both parties are willing to return to the negotiation table.

In the meantime, crude Oil prices hover around their weekly lows, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) changing hands at around $89, indicating decreased concerns about the Persian Gulf conflict.

Other than that, the US Dollar (USD) remains under strong selling pressure, although Gold demand is absent, with speculative interest looking into riskier assets. Given the absence of relevant data, financial markets are set to continue to react to war-related headlines.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is neutral-to-bullish, according to the 4-hour chart. The pair holds above the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4,770.80 and the 100-period SMA at $4,641.39, while the 200-period SMA at $4,835.59 caps the topside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is flat at 56, while the Momentum indicator turned marginally higher just above its midline, reflecting modest upward pressure and the absence of downward steam.

On the downside, immediate support is at the 20-period SMA at $4,771, followed by the 100-period SMA near $4,641, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract dip-buying interest. On the topside, the 200-period SMA at $4,836 is the first notable resistance; a sustained break above this hurdle would open the way for a continuation of the broader advance.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD holds comfortably above the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), although the shorter one aims firmly lower, suggesting fading buying interest. At the same time,e, technical indicators have turned marginally lower, barely holding above their midlines, reflecting the absence of clear trading interest rather than suggesting an upcoming directional movement.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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