Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes $1,942 and gobal PMIs for further upside


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  • Gold price preserves gains amid renewed US Dollar weakness. 
  • The latest recovery mode in the US Treasury bond yields caps Gold price upside.
  • Focus shifts to the global Purchasing Manager’s Index for fresh cues
  • Gold price needs to break the $1,942 barrier for a fresh uptrend.

Gold price is consolidating the latest uptick to near nine-month highs, as bulls take a pause contemplating the next move. Gold price is holding firmer so far this Tuesday, having witnessed good two-way trades a day before.  

Eurozone, United States PMI data in focus

Amidst the US Federal Reserve (Fed) ‘blackout period’ and China’s Lunar New Year holidays, the focus is now shifting back to the fundamentals. Therefore, preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Manager’s Index from the Eurozone and the United States. The business surveys will likely provide signals on the state of the global economy, which could have a significant impact on the expectations of a potential recession. Should the PMI reports across the euro area and from the US hint at increasing odds of a global recession, investors could scurry into the safe-haven US Dollar, triggering a sharp retracement in the Gold price from higher levels.

Indian Gold demand to be hit by the record futures price

Citing dealers, Reuters reported on Tuesday, Indian Gold futures hit a fresh all-time high but investors remain wary that the price surge could dampen demand in the world's second-biggest consumer of the precious metal. The further upside in the Gold price, therefore, remains capped, despite dovish Federal Reserve expectations. Meanwhile, there were reports doing the rounds that India is expected to cut the import duty on Gold to undercut smugglers.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The technical outlook for Gold price remains unchanged, as Gold bulls continue to yearn for acceptance above the upper boundary of a rising wedge formation, now aligned at $1,942. A fresh upswing toward the $1.950 psychological level cannot be ruled out on a daily candlestick closing above the latter.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flatlined just above the overbought territory, backing the bullish potential.

Gold price tested both boundaries of the rising wedge formation on Monday, awaiting a fresh catalyst for a range breakout, seemingly to the upside.  

On the flip side, the lower boundary of the wedge, now at $1,923, holds the key for Gold optimists. A sustained downside break could fuel a fresh downswing toward January 18 low at $1,897

But the previous day’s low at $1,911 and the $1,900 round figure could offer some brief reprieve to Gold buyers.

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