Gold outlook: Why macro bulls are still in control

Gold prices have traded sideways in recent sessions, but the bigger story is far from neutral. Beneath the surface, macro fundamentals remain supportive-and may set the stage for a sharp move once the current range breaks.

Central banks keep stacking Gold

Global central banks are on pace to accumulate over 1,000 metric tons of gold in 2025, marking a fourth consecutive year of heavy buying. China, in particular, has extended its gold-buying streak to seven straight months-a signal of ongoing diversification away from the U.S. dollar.

This level of institutional demand provides a solid floor for gold, even as short-term price action cools off.

Easing tensions in US-China talks

Gold slipped earlier this week as the market responded to progress in U.S.-China trade talks in London. With reduced fear in the market, short-term safe-haven flows have dipped-explaining part of gold’s muted behavior.

Technical outlook: Range-bound motion on Gold

Technically, gold is consolidating between $3,200 and $3,400, with two failed breakouts on either side marking classic fake-outs.

Four-hour

Overall, the bullish Fair Value Gap sitting between $3,250 and $3,285 is still intact unless we visit the next previous low at $3,271.18.

One-hour

Key levels to watch out

While gold is still in a consolidation phase at the 1-hour timeframe, watch out if it tests either support and/or resistance levels at $3,290 and $3,340 respectively.

Catalyst on Gold this week

Headline CPI YoY is expected to rise from 2.3% to 2.5%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also forecasted to tick higher.

This signals sticky inflation-which may pressure the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. If these forecasts come true (or come in hotter), expect bearish pressure on gold due to a stronger U.S. dollar and rising yields.

But if the data cools unexpectedly, it could be the catalyst Gold needs to break out of its recent range.