GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling struggles to attract bulls
- GBP/USD trades near 1.2750 following Monday's choppy action.
- The near-term technical outlook points to a lack of bullish momentum.
- In the absence of high-impact data releases, risk mood could drive the pair's action.
GBP/USD rose to 1.2800 on Monday but failed to clear that hurdle for the second consecutive trading day. The pair stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.2750 early Tuesday.
British Pound PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies last 7 days. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.45% | -0.74% | 1.33% | 0.98% | 1.30% | 1.05% | -0.78% | |
| EUR | 0.45% | -0.30% | 1.79% | 1.44% | 1.76% | 1.50% | -0.33% | |
| GBP | 0.74% | 0.30% | 2.11% | 1.73% | 2.06% | 1.81% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | -1.33% | -1.79% | -2.11% | -0.36% | -0.07% | -0.32% | -2.12% | |
| CAD | -0.98% | -1.44% | -1.73% | 0.36% | 0.31% | 0.07% | -1.75% | |
| AUD | -1.30% | -1.76% | -2.06% | 0.07% | -0.31% | -0.25% | -2.07% | |
| NZD | -1.05% | -1.50% | -1.81% | 0.32% | -0.07% | 0.25% | -1.82% | |
| CHF | 0.78% | 0.33% | 0.05% | 2.12% | 1.75% | 2.07% | 1.82% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The negative shift seen in risk mood helped the US Dollar (USD) hold its ground in the second half of the day on Monday and caused GBP/USD to erase its daily gains. Wall Street's main indexes started the week on a bearish note and lost between 0.5% and 0.8% on a daily basis. Early Tuesday, US stock index futures trade mixed.
In the early American session on Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a revision to the third-quarter Unit Labor Costs. Markets expect the data to be reaffirmed at 1.9%. In case the BLS revises this figure higher, the immediate market reaction could be USD-positive and weigh on GBP/USD. On the flip side, a negative revision is likely to have the opposite effect on the pair's action.
Nevertheless, investors could opt to wait for Wednesday's November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US before taking large positions. Until then, the risk perception could impact the USD's valuation. If US stocks continue to push lower after the opening bell, the USD could preserve its strength and make it difficult for GBP/USD to attract bulls.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
In case GBP/USD flips 1.2750 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend) into resistance, buyers could be discouraged. In this scenario, 1.2700 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) could be seen as next support before 1.2660 (100-period SMA).
If GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2750 and continues to use that level as support, the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2770 could act as next resistance before 1.2800 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
